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Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa began his visit to India today amid protests over recent statements he made that appeared to rule out political autonomy for Sri Lanka’s Tamil ethnic minority. While the president had previously promised to delegate authority to the provinces, as required by the constitution, while also broadening dialogue with the Tamils, he said in a speech for Sri Lankan Independence Day on Monday that it would not be practical for the island country “to have different administrations based on ethnicity.” Alan Keenan, project director and senior analyst for Sri Lanka at the International Crisis Group, told […]

After a bruising confirmation hearing last week before the Senate Armed Service Committee, former Sen. Chuck Hagel, the nominee for the position of secretary of defense in the second-term Obama administration, may be reconsidering whether he truly wants the position. But the stress he endured on the hot seat before his former colleagues may pale in comparison to the challenges that he — or anyone else nominated for the position should he fail to be confirmed — will have to cope with in the coming years. America’s ongoing fiscal crisis and the seeming inability of its executive and legislative branches […]

Prior to the December inauguration of Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, the United States intervened to halt the rise of Gen. Moises Garcia Ochoa, who was expected to become Mexico’s next minister of defense, according to reporting by the New York Times. U.S. Ambassador to Mexico Anthony Wayne met with Pena Nieto’s senior aides to express American concerns over the possible promotion of the general, including suspicions that he had ties to drug traffickers. “This is not unprecedented, and it doesn’t just apply to Mexico. The United States, over the decades, has done this with a number of Latin American […]

A little more than a decade ago, in July 2002, the African Union (AU) was formed against an inauspicious backdrop. For Africa, the previous decade had been defined by conflict, state collapse, failed peacekeeping missions and even genocide. So dire had Africa’s condition become that in May 2000 the Economist captured its malaise under the infamous rubric, “the hopeless continent.” The AU’s mission over the past decade was in part to challenge and rewrite such bleak narratives. Looking back, its record is mixed, particularly in its attempts to position itself as the principal vehicle for the advancement of democratization on […]

With middle-class dissatisfaction growing and her modus operandi becoming better understood, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner is finding the crucial challenge of controlling the political narrative in Argentina increasingly difficult, and she may not be able to pin the blame for her country’s woes on outside forces for much longer. That’s a key part of the strategy that has proved so effective for more than a decade of Kirchner administrations, beginning with the late Nestor Kirchner and continuing with his widow, the current president. Every few days, Fernandez faces a new controversy, and each time she responds by singling out […]

The Philippines announced last month that it would seek international arbitration for its long-running dispute with China over territory in the South China Sea. In an email interview, John E. Noyes, a professor of international law and the law of the sea at California Western School of Law, explained the significance of the move and how international tribunals for maritime disputes generally operate. WPR: What are the steps for seeking arbitration under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), and what is the scope of the disputes that can be settled under it? John Noyes: Under […]

Over the past few decades, North Korea has developed a penchant for aggression just below the threshold that would cause the United States, South Korea and other states to respond in kind. As its economy rots and one member of the Kim dynasty gives way to another, the provocations expand. They reached new peaks in March 2010 when a North Korean submarine sank a South Korean navy ship, and in November 2010 when the North Korean military shelled a South Korean island, killing two soldiers. Even more ominously, North Korea has worked strenuously to develop more powerful ballistic missiles that […]

It is the United States’ stated policy to employ an “active cyberdefense” capability to defend U.S. military networks and systems and to conduct “full-spectrum military cyberspace operations” when directed to assist in that defense. Active cyberdefense is a term of art widely understood to include offensive actions in cyberspace taken with defensive purposes in mind. Such actions are tactical operations with the limited goal of mitigating an immediate hostile act. In addition, U.S. Cyber Command, the U.S. military’s combatant command tasked with cyberoperations, is reportedly planning to create “national mission forces” that would protect the computer systems undergirding “electrical grids, […]

In mid-January, militants raided Algeria’s In Amenas gas field, sparking a crisis that ended with the deaths of at least 37 hostages. Anne Korin, co-director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, an energy security research organization, explained in an email interview why the oil and gas industry is an attractive target for terrorists. WPR: What makes the oil and gas industry an attractive target for terrorists? Anne Korin: In many parts of the world where oil and gas export income is a critical contributor to regime budgets, attacking oil and gas infrastructure serves to strike a direct […]

As the United States military prepares to move beyond Iraq and Afghanistan and develop new strategies, operating concepts and organizations, policymakers are asking whether there are any useful lessons to be learned from the more than decade-long global war on terrorism. Operation Enduring Freedom-Philippines (OEF-P) is an instructive case that can provide possible considerations for the future. The U.S. military’s experience in the Philippines is particularly relevant, as the December 2012 Army Capstone Concept guiding the service’s future operations envisions regionally focused brigade combat teams with the ability to conduct security force assistance with host-nation forces. More importantly, the Capstone […]

Across the globe, partner capacity-building through steady-state theater security cooperation (.pdf) plays an increasingly important role in the forward defense posture of the United States. The Defense Department’s 2010 Quadrennial Defense Review (.pdf) identifies building the security capacity of partner states as a key mission, while the 2010 National Security Strategy (.pdf) argues that the United States can advance its national security by enabling partner states to prevent, deter and respond to transnational security challenges before they pose a threat to U.S. citizens, interests or the homeland. Moreover, at a time of budgetary constraints, partner capacity-building through theater security cooperation […]

Last week, a trial court in Guatemala City decided that there was enough evidence to send Efrain Rios Montt, the former Guatemalan general who headed a military dictatorship from 1982 to 1983, and Jose Rodriguez Sanchez, Rios Montt’s former head of military intelligence, to trial. Rios Montt, along with other military chiefs, is accused of masterminding a scorched earth campaign against the Ixil Mayan group in northern Guatemala that resulted in more than 1,700 deaths in 1982-1983. It is the first time a former head of state in the Americas will stand trial for genocide. While the trial in Guatemala […]

It is no accident that European Union foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton proposed, and Iran has accepted, holding the next round of nuclear talks in Kazakhstan on Feb. 25. Iran had recently rejected proposed talks in Istanbul on Jan. 28-29, presumably due to irritation with Turkey’s efforts to overthrow Syria’s pro-Iranian government. Citing a desire to reduce regional tensions and avert an escalation of the Iranian nuclear crisis, Kazakhstani Foreign Minister Erlan Idrissov reaffirmed his country’s readiness to host the next round of talks during a late-January visit to Moscow. The relationship between Iran and Kazakhstan is driven by pragmatism […]

From the standpoint of America’s national security, the most important assignment in your military career may not necessarily be commanding U.S. soldiers, but advising or mentoring the troops of other nationals as they battle the forces of terror and the instability within their own borders. – Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, West Point, April 21, 2008 (.pdf) Historically, Western armies have struggled with the task of training, advising and assisting host-nation security forces to defeat irregular adversaries. This is part and parcel of their broader problem with irregular conflict. Conventional military forces are designed for combat against counterpart forces of […]

Governments and independent experts have found countless metrics to evaluate the successes and failures of military interventions such as those in Kosovo, Afghanistan and Iraq, judging them on everything from casualty rates to the provision of public services. The number of girls attending school in Afghanistan, for example, has been a standard point of reference for supporters of the NATO mission there. But what metrics can be used to evaluate a deliberate nonintervention? This question is grimly relevant to assessments of the West’s decision not to take military action in Syria to date. Advocates of an intervention have a lot […]

Serbia and Kosovo agreed last month to exchange envoys for the first time in response to a broader European Union push for the two to improve relations. In an email interview, Stefan Lehne, a Balkans and European Union expert at Carnegie Europe, explained the overall progress of Kosovo-Serbia relations and the challenges that remain. WPR: What were the factors that drove Serbia and Kosovo to exchange envoys for the first time? Stefan Lehne: Whatever their differences on the status issue, Serbia and Kosovo will always be neighbors. Every day there will be problems to sort out between them and gains […]

French President Francois Hollande’s Jan. 15 visit to the United Arab Emirates garnered relatively little attention, coming just four days after the start of the French military intervention in Mali. Though Hollande traveled to the UAE ostensibly to give the keynote address at the World Future Energy Summit, the trip was actually the latest move in Paris’ efforts to strengthen the two countries’ economic and strategic relationship. Over the past five years, France has made a concerted push to boost ties with the United Arab Emirates. Former President Nicolas Sarkozy visited twice, in 2008 and 2009, and established France’s first […]