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Under North Korea’s former dictator Kim Jong Il, crises followed a well-choreographed pattern. There would be provocation and sometimes outright aggression accompanied by paranoid, hostile and even hysterical rhetoric from Pyongyang. Eventually Kim would be mollified by some diplomatic concession or more assistance to keep the ramshackle North Korean economy from collapsing altogether, and things would return to normal — such as it was. However much this game frustrated the United States, Washington was fairly confident that it would not escalate into accidental war. Kim knew how far to push and when to back off. Unfortunately, the young Kim Jong […]

Georgia’s recent announcement of its intention to contribute to the European Union military training mission in Mali signals not only Tbilisi’s continued role as a reliable supplier of forces for Euro-Atlantic security missions, but also the Georgian military’s ambitions as a niche counterterrorism force. Under the new Georgian Dream coalition government, the Defense Ministry is embarking on a series of reforms to fit its force structure to this mission set. After the surprise victory of Bidzina Ivanishvili’s Georgian Dream coalition in Georgia’s October 2012 parliamentary elections, the new government was quick to reaffirm the country’s Western orientation. This included carrying […]

Over the weekend, Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, who is on a tour of Asia that ends tomorrow, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in southern China. Pena Nieto’s trip is part of an effort to develop closer bilateral ties between Mexico and China, after more than a decade of what the Financial Times has called “reciprocal coolness.” The trip “was predicated on the idea of engaging China in order that Chinese investors see Mexico as an optimal export platform into North America,” Francisco Gonzalez, associate professor and Riordan Roett chair in Latin American Studies at the Johns Hopkins University […]

The new South Korean government of President Park Geun-hye finds itself in a difficult situation. On the one hand, it must respond to North Korea’s missile threats to avert more serious ones. On the other, it must do so without provoking Pyongyang or Beijing. Chinese officials are already concerned by South Korea’s strengthening security ties with the U.S. as well as by Seoul’s recent decision, supported by Washington, to acquire longer-range offensive ballistic missiles capable of reaching Chinese territory. But responding to the urgent North Korean threat requires bold action, and, despite Beijing’s complaints, the added pressure that closer U.S.-South […]

Since 1998, a major element of India’s nuclear doctrine has been the development of a nuclear triad: the ability to fire nuclear weapons from land, air and sea. Recent years have seen India concentrating on the sea-based element of its nuclear deterrent, in particular through efforts to develop a ballistic missile submarine (SSBN). All the major nuclear powers have placed their faith in SSBNs, primarily because they are extremely hard to detect and destroy, hence assuring a state’s retaliatory capability. The fear of a second strike, in turn, helps maintain effective deterrence between nuclear adversaries. This same logic motivates India’s […]

Last month, newly minted Chinese President Xi Jinping toured Africa promising more investment, stronger people-to-people ties and a more dynamic trading relationship with the continent. Considering that China’s trade with Africa totaled nearly $200 billion last year, this visit was more than mere window-dressing. India also has been staking out an aggressive strategy of engagement in Africa, building on its historical ties to Eastern Africa. Last year, Indian trade with the continent neared $70 billion. Where does this leave Japan? For years, Tokyo maintained an impeccable reputation across the continent as a result of its generous supply of overseas development […]

During a visit to Saudi Arabia in February, Japanese Industry Minister Toshimitsu Motegi reportedly offered cooperation on civil nuclear technology to help the kingdom boost oil exports by freeing up supplies currently used in domestic electricity generation. The offer came in the context of rising Saudi crude exports to Japan resulting from Tokyo’s post-Fukushima nuclear shutdowns as well as its declining imports from Iran. It also came at a time when the new Japanese government led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is looking to boost civil nuclear exports to support Japan’s flagging domestic industry. Given its plans for a massive […]

Policy discussions about peacekeeping frequently get bogged down in technical details, such as the wording of United Nations resolutions, rather than tackling big strategic questions. This has been true of most commentary on the U.N. Security Council’s decision in late-March to mandate an “intervention brigade” to “neutralize and disarm” armed groups in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). There has been a lot of talk about the council’s unusually aggressive language, and less about the new brigade’s role in the complex political struggle for access to the DRC’s natural resources. Peacekeeping experts are excited that the council has directed […]

The U.S. has recently made two high-profile moves to cooperate with the International Criminal Court, which the U.S. has not joined and is barred by domestic law from supporting financially. In an email interview, Harry Rhea, assistant professor of criminal justice at Florida International University and author of the book “The United States and International Criminal Tribunals: An Introduction,” discussed U.S.-ICC cooperation and how the U.S. can bolster the court without joining it. WPR: Do recent U.S. moves to cooperate with the court — transferring Bosco Ntaganda to The Hague and including ICC suspects in the Rewards for Justice program, […]

Leaders from Serbia and Kosovo, who came together in Brussels earlier this week for the last of eight rounds of formal talks mediated by the European Union, failed to come to an agreement on the status of northern Kosovo. Kosovo, a former Serbian province, declared its independence in 2008, but Serbia has never recognized it as an independent state. Ethnic Serbs in northern Kosovo reject the authority of the government in Pristina, Kosovo’s capital. Marko Prelec, director of the International Crisis Group’s Balkans Project, told Trend Lines in an email interview that there is still time to strike a deal […]

Experts are debating what precisely are the motives behind North Korea’s recent spike in belligerent rhetoric and posturing, with answers ranging from the opinion that “war talk” is an attempt by the North’s young leader, Kim Jong Un, to solidify his hold on power to the worry that the regime is losing its grip on reality. What is more certain, however, is the set of assumptions guiding Pyongyang’s strategic calculus. Whether the North Korean leadership’s assessments are accurate or not — and what steps the other powers in the region take to correct them — may help determine how this […]

It’s election season again in Venezuela. And while the future of the country’s international oil agreements will be far from most voters’ minds on April 14, the same cannot be said for the 17 Caribbean and Central American nations that make up Petrocaribe. Their energy security, if not economic stability, may well rest on the outcome of the presidential race. Established with 14 members in 2005, Petrocaribe provides preferential payments for Venezuelan oil on extremely favorable terms. Currently, members pay a mere 5-50 percent of the market price upfront. The remainder is then repaid over a 17-25 year period at […]

Former U.S. envoy William Stanton’s recent tough-love message to Taiwan reflects a long-standing concern in Washington over Taipei’s commitment and ability to defend itself in the event of a Chinese attack or invasion. Stanton, who retired last summer after three years as America’s unofficial ambassador to Taiwan but chose to stay in the country, raised the subject of Taiwan’s military budget in a speech to the World Taiwanese Congress in Taipei last month. He emphasized that he was speaking for himself, not the U.S. government, but his words echoed similar American complaints going back a decade or more. “I worry […]

When North Korea surprised the international community by detonating a nuclear device in February, America’s at the time brand new secretary of state, John Kerry, drew a link between Pyongyang and Tehran. Failure to respond decisively to North Korea’s provocation, Kerry warned, risked emboldening Iran. Kerry was suggesting that the impact of the North Korean crisis on Iran would come as a result of the conclusions Tehran might draw about its own nuclear program from closely observing international reactions to North Korea’s. But it is likely that the impact of the North Korean situation on the diplomatic standoff with Iran […]

On Tuesday, Hamas re-elected Khaled Meshaal as its political leader, extending his nearly decade-long leadership of the Palestinian militant Islamist group. Hard-liners in the Gaza Strip, which Hamas controls, have been critical of Meshaal and his efforts to bridge divides with Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who leads the rival Palestinian group Fatah. Meshaal had previously said he would step down, and there were also reports that Hamas members in Gaza might try to force him aside. But Hamas’ internal political decision-making committee, the Shura Council, gave him another term, reportedly at least in part because of international pressure, including […]

In mid-March, three suspected militants were killed by Russian forces in the North Caucasus, a region that has long been a site of Islamist and separatist violence, beginning with the Chechen wars in the 1990s. In an email interview, Domitilla Sagramoso, a lecturer in security and development at King’s College London who specializes in conflict, security and development in Russia, the Caucasus and Central Asia, explained the roots of the ongoing violence in the region and the evolution of Russia’s response to it. WPR: What is the immediate background and current extent of the insurgency in Russia’s North Caucasus? Domitilla […]

Turkey and Israel are moving toward reconciliation at the same time that the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) has declared a cease-fire in its armed struggle with the Turkish state. Combined, the two developments have paved the way for Ankara to achieve its longstanding goal of becoming a regional energy transit hub, but ongoing disputes with Cyprus and Iraq mean that further progress remains uncertain. On March 24, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu apologized on Israel’s behalf to Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan for the deadly Gaza flotilla raid by Israeli forces in 2010. The apology is expected among other […]