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Last weekend, tens of thousands of protesters rallied in Taiwan against President Ma Ying-jeou, who has become deeply unpopular after a series of scandals. In the latest scandal, Ma, whose approval rating is now below 10 percent, used wiretap data from the Special Investigation Division to demand that Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng step down. Wang, whom Ma has tried to strip of his membership in the ruling Chinese Nationalist party or Kuomintang (KMT), is a political rival of the president’s. But the sources of Ma’s unpopularity run deeper. “Ongoing unrest in Taiwan has both political and economic factors, and will […]

In September, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), a Marxist guerilla organization currently attempting to negotiate an end to its nearly five-decade armed conflict with the Colombian government, called for the formation of a truth commission to investigate Colombia’s conflict. In an email interview, Christian Voelkel, an analyst with the Colombia and Andes project at International Crisis Group, explained the role of transitional justice in Colombia’s peace process, which was also the subject of a recent International Crisis Group report. WPR: What is the scope of the transitional justice measures already in place in Colombia? Christian Voelkel: Transitional justice […]

Recent changes in Japan’s security policies have been interpreted by the media as representing a scrapping of the country’s pacifist restrictions, leading it toward becoming a “normal” nation and acquiring a more assertive military. These changes include permitting the right to exercise collective self-defense, creating a National Security Council, relaxing a ban on exporting defense-related equipment and procuring new military assets. The changes are significant, but they do not represent a fundamental shift. Instead, they represent a pragmatic evolution in response to Japan’s increasingly dangerous neighborhood. Consider first Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s effort to reinterpret Japan’s constitution. At issue is […]

One year ago, Colombian President Juan Manuel Santos made the riskiest move of his presidency. He agreed to enter peace talks with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC), the Marxist guerrilla organization that has kept the country at war for half a century in a conflict that has taken the lives of more than 200,000 Colombians. If the talks succeed, Santos will earn a place in history, the undying gratitude of the Colombian people and a second term as president. If they fail, the talks could provide the epitaph to his political career. Today, the negotiations with representatives of […]

Facing dissent from within his own party over his plans to topple the coalition government of Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta, Silvio Berlusconi reversed course today and decided to back down from an attempt to bring down the government. Berlusconi, the former prime minister, prompted the vote of confidence in Italy’s Senate by threatening to withdraw his party’s support from Letta’s government. The resulting backlash, and Berlusconi’s decision to back down, have left the former prime minister weakened. His People of Freedom Party, which has dominated the political scene in Italy for the past two decades, could also suffer consequences. […]

In late-August and early September, when the Obama administration was still seeking to generate support for the use of force against Syria after Damascus had crossed the “red line” of large-scale use of chemical weapons, one of the arguments it used was that failure to do so would undermine the credibility of America’s threat to strike Iran if Tehran ever built nuclear weapons. That argument may have been true at the time, but the situation has become more complex since the U.S. and Russia reached an agreement to disarm Syria’s chemical weapons peacefully. By explicitly stating, partly for domestic reasons […]

Newly incumbent Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott has signaled the importance he places on Australia’s relations with Indonesia by making Jakarta the destination of his first overseas visit. Abbott said it was his hope “that this visit establishes a convention for all future incoming prime ministers to make Jakarta their first port of call overseas.” But his meetings Monday and Tuesday with Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono were initially overshadowed by controversy surrounding Australia’s asylum-seeker policy, which has become a hot-button issue in both countries. Indonesia is important to Australia both from a geostrategic and trade perspective. Relations between the […]

In 1897, Mark Twain famously advised the New York Journal that its report of his death was an exaggeration. Recent years have seen a number of reports of al-Qaida’s death. These too have been exaggerations but, unfortunately, dangerous rather than witty ones. Claims of al-Qaida’s demise began in July 2011 when then-Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said the defeat of al-Qaida is “within reach.” In a May 2013 speech at the National Defense University in Washington, President Barack Obama said, “The core of al-Qaida in Afghanistan and Pakistan is on the path to defeat.” In an August address at Camp […]

During his current visit to South Korea, U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel will likely discuss long-standing issues on the alliance agenda, including the timing of the transfer of wartime operational control from U.S. to South Korean forces as well as plans for sharing the costs of defending South Korea in coming years. But Hagel’s visit might well be dominated by Seoul’s abrupt decision last week to annul its tender to purchase 60 advanced fighter planes and launch a new one. Boeing’s F-15 Silent Eagle—an upgraded version of the F-15E, the dominant model in the South Korean Air Force—looked set to […]

India is seeking to conclude a nuclear trade deal with Australia’s new government by the end of the year. In an email interview, Rory Medcalf, director of the International Security Program at the Lowy Institute and associate director of the Australia India Institute, explained what’s at stake in their negotiations. WPR: What is at stake in the nuclear trade negotiations between India and Australia? Rory Medcalf: These are safeguards talks aimed at finalizing an agreement to ensure that any Australian uranium exported to India will not be diverted to military uses. Uranium is no longer a make or break issue […]

When the M23, a Rwanda-backed militia, launched a rebellion last year in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), few could have guessed the fallout it would cause in Kigali. For years, credible reports had documented a host of Rwanda-sponsored abuses in the region, from civilian massacres to the plundering of minerals. Yet Rwanda’s Western backers, wary of undermining a country considered a major development success, generally looked the other way. But when a series of U.N. Group of Experts reports found evidence of systematic Rwandan support for the rebels, including the provision of weapons and troops, and direct Rwandan command […]