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Conflict settlement is a process rather than a singular act. At its most basic, a peace process comprises three phases: the negotiation, implementation and operation of an agreement meant to enable the conflict parties to resolve their disputes by nonviolent, political means. Yet the successful conclusion of a peace process is by no means a foregone conclusion—they can, and do, fail. Sometimes negotiations break down and no agreements are concluded, leading conflict parties back to violence. In other cases, disagreements about the meaning of particular provisions arise after an agreement has been reached. In the absence of effective dispute resolution […]

Crisis management and long-term strategy: French president Francois Hollande must juggle both priorities right now as he seeks to develop a sustainable approach to engagement south of the Sahara even as 1,600 French troops are deployed on an emergency intervention in the Central African Republic. The French public and political world are mostly supportive of the mission in the CAR, which seeks to halt a spiral of conflict between Christians and Muslims. Yet Hollande still has to overcome the skepticism of critics who see this latest military intervention as redolent of the post-colonial era, when Paris would send in its […]

Over the past few decades, the shifting dynamics of the nature of war, combined with a maturing field of peace process support, have led to parallel shifts in the nature of mediation in peace processes. There has been a significant increase in the number of ongoing civil wars, as opposed to interstate wars, and the field of conflict transformation has changed accordingly. Under the leadership of Kofi Annan, the United Nations began the process of mainstreaming the inclusion of civil society and other actors into the fields of peacebuilding and conflict resolution. Now, more actors, using more-advanced support mechanisms, are […]

Does Ban Ki-moon fall prey to the sin of envy when he thinks of Pope Francis? The two men are arguably the leaders of the two most significant global institutions, and idealists have dubbed the secretary-general of the United Nations a “secular pope.” Ban does not subscribe to this grandiloquent self-description. But he may wish he could communicate moral themes as effectively as the new pontiff. Francis impressed even nonbelievers last month with a deeply felt attack on the rising “economy of exclusion and inequality.” Ban, who hopes to forge a new international deal to end extreme poverty by 2030, […]

The interim nuclear agreement signed by the U.S.-led international coalition known as the P5+1 and Iran appears to be causing a geopolitical earthquake among the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). On one side are GCC states that see the potential for resolving decades-long disputes involving maritime issues, boundaries and trade. On the other are those that do not trust Iran and eye Tehran’s new stature as a result of the interim agreement with alarm. The possibilities for diplomatic breakthroughs are now greater than ever, however, as Tehran clearly wants to “cool” its testy relationships with the GCC states. […]

The sacrifices of U.S. and NATO troops in Afghanistan have been widely reported, but the U.S. war effort has relied heavily on private firms to provide a variety of services, including armed security for convoys and installations. As NATO draws down in Afghanistan and struggles with budget constraints, the United States and others will almost certainly continue rely on these firms, which have attracted scrutiny and criticism over the years. “After the United States leaves Afghanistan, the private security industry will grow,” explains Sean McFate of the Atlantic Council in an email interview, given that “the United States and others […]

A concerted effort to portray the protests in Ukraine as a pivotal moment pitting the Euro-Atlantic community against a resurgent Russia has not gained much traction among the American public in general or the Obama administration in particular. Washington apparently has little interest in matching the Russian “bid” for Ukraine, despite dire warnings that a failure to do so will imperil the security of the Western world. Some of this may be due to “revolution fatigue” engendered after a decade of watching the promise of popular uprisings to usher in new eras of freedom, democracy and pro-American governments fade away. […]

Heading into Sunday’s second-round presidential vote in Chile, there is one word that best sums up the energy policy debate in the Andean nation: diversification. That is, much like an individual pursuing a personal investment strategy, Chile is seeking an energy policy that brings increased diversity to its matrix. More specifically, security, efficiency and sustainability are the clear-cut issues facing policymakers and energy sector participants alike; Chile currently imports 97 percent of its fossil fuels and depends on hydropower for 42 percent of its electricity generation. In a twist to Sunday’s voting, President Sebastian Pinera’s successor is likely to be […]

Often overlooked by some Western policymakers engaged with the Mideast peace process, water-sharing arrangements have served as a significant driver of regional tensions dating back to Israel’s founding in 1948. Control of water resources—vital to all manner of economic development, food production and basic human security—has loomed just beneath the surface of many of the region’s headline-earning events of the past 50 years. For example, one of the myriad outcomes of Israel’s triumph in the 1967 Six-Day War—Israeli control of the Golan Heights—brought control of key sections of the Jordan River watershed, one of the few reliable freshwater sources in […]

A bill to reform Mexico’s energy sector passed both houses of Mexico’s Congress this week, bringing President Enrique Pena Nieto’s promised overhaul of the state-owned oil and gas industry a big step closer to becoming reality. The bill would usher in a dramatic opening of Mexico’s oil and gas industry, which was nationalized 75 years ago, and is hoped to revamp the country’s flagging oil production and attract billions of dollars in foreign investment. Mexico is currently the world’s ninth-largest oil producer and depends on the energy sector for one-third of its revenue, but inefficiency and corruption have plagued Pemex, […]

Exactly one year ago, Egyptian liberals took the streets driven by anguish and anger. The first elected government since the Tahrir Square uprising was stealing the revolution from them. In the dead of night, the Islamist-dominated constitutional assembly had approved a draft that many viewed as laying the path to an Islamist state. One year later, with the Islamists out of power and the military firmly in control, a new panel has approved major changes to that constitution. Just as the old constitution revealed the Islamists’ ambitions, the new document offers a window into the long-term aspirations of those holding […]

The Middle East has played such a pivotal role in U.S. national security over the past few decades that it’s easy to forget this is a recent phenomenon. It wasn’t until the mid-1970s that America’s growing dependence on Middle Eastern oil, concern about expanding Soviet military power and an intensification of the U.S. relationship with Israel elevated the region to the first tier of American security concerns. With the end of the Cold War, the Middle East became paramount in America’s global strategy. Now, in a shift of potentially historic impact, that may be coming to an end. The coming […]

Since Ukraine regained independence in 1991, analysts have often described the country as divided between a pro-European west and a pro-Russian east. Over the past two decades, elections and opinion polls have reflected that divide, though with some gradual blurring of the line. An interesting feature of the current political crisis, however, is that while pro-European sentiment grips the western and central parts of Ukraine, no alternate pro-Russian narrative has appeared with any force or passion. Like many things, the east-west divide in Ukraine oversimplifies. It is not strictly a divide between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians. The latter make […]

Last week, South Korea and Australia struck a tentative free trade agreement after resuming trade talks that had been frozen for more than three years. In an email interview, Jeffrey Robertson, a visiting professor at the Korea Development Institute School of Public Policy and Management, explained the state South Korea-Australia bilateral ties. WPR: What has been the recent trajectory of South Korea-Australia ties? Jeffrey Robertson: Until recently, there were four features common to every Australia-South Korea diplomatic function. First, the Australian side would reiterate that the relationship has a historical basis, beginning with visits of Australian missionaries to Busan during […]

Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s party won roughly half of the votes in municipal elections held this weekend, strengthening the government’s position as it confronts an ongoing economic crisis. Maduro has vowed to continue the socialist project of his predecessor Hugo Chavez, and has been taking steps to counter the “economic war” he claims is being waged on Venezuela by foreign-backed business interests. The opposition secured 43 percent of the vote, less than it managed to capture in the presidential election in April, and complained of government interference. Reacting to the results, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said the elections […]

During his recent visit to South Asia, U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel focused on securing a formal agreement to keep U.S. forces in Afghanistan beyond 2014 and an informal accord to continue drone strikes in Pakistan. These are both important topics, but U.S. policymakers need to devote more attention to other issues that could have an even greater impact on U.S. interests in the South Asian region in coming years. While in Kabul, Hagel did not even try to meet Afghan President Hamid Karzai, who has been adding new conditions for a renewal of the Afghan-U.S. status of forces agreement […]

Last week, OPEC decided to leave its production ceiling unchanged at 30 million barrels per day (bpd), the target it set two years ago. On the face of it, this decision seems to reflect the self-proclaimed oil cartel’s satisfaction with current high oil prices. Over the past three years, OPEC has thrived with Brent crude averaging above $100 a barrel, boosting members’ revenues to record highs. High prices have even allowed the Vienna-based organization to become sloppy: OPEC stopped publishing individual country quotas five years ago, and most cartel members are producing all the oil they can; meanwhile, Saudi Arabia […]