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Since the conflict in South Sudan escalated in December, well-meaning governments and United Nations officials have repeatedly argued that only a political solution can end the fighting. “There is no military solution,” U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Samantha Power told CNN on Christmas Eve. But the South Sudanese government does not seem entirely convinced. Over the past week it has ratcheted up its offensives against rebel-held areas, recapturing the economically important town of Bentiu. Bor, another major center in rebel hands, has also been under attack. The government is still in peace talks with rebel envoys, but it is evidently […]

India, like any emerging great power, faces an array of strategic challenges. One that critically threatens both economic development and national security, but which so far has attracted surprisingly little attention, is illicit trade. The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) has awoken to this challenge. Within the past year, FICCI has published estimates shedding light on the extent of illicit trade for a number of legitimate business sectors. FICCI estimates that a quarter of fast-moving consumer goods, one in five mobile phones, a quarter of computer hardware and a third of auto components are from the […]

Depressing headlines from the Middle East have thrown cold water on any lingering optimism that U.S. policy objectives in the region were on track. In Iraq, Fallujah and Ramadi have been lost, at least for now, to al-Qaida-linked insurgents. The Syrian conflict has apparently transformed into a multi-sided war, increasing the likelihood that Bashar al-Assad’s regime will survive. And progress remains elusive in Afghanistan as the countdown to withdrawal continues. Not long ago there was reason for hope in all these countries. The surges in Iraq and Afghanistan were supposed to have worked, and the Arab Spring, it was hoped, […]

Since China embarked on a credit-fueled stimulus package in 2009 designed to stave off the impact of the global financial crisis, the rapid buildup in the country’s aggregate debt has become a source of concern. Although successful at the time, the stimulus has increasingly become viewed as ill-judged by government officials. As a result, the new leadership is making a concerted effort to quantify the leverage situation and control associated risks. Measures to increase capital discipline in the economy are gaining traction, but Beijing increasingly finds itself striking a balance between managing debt risks and maintaining adequate economic growth. China’s […]

As negotiations continue on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement, one persistent sticking point has been public health, and in particular patent protections for pharmaceuticals. In an email interview, Frederick M. Abbott, the Edward Ball Eminent Scholar at Florida State University College of Law and an expert on international intellectual property rights, explained the public health concerns involved in trade negotiations. WPR: In what ways have public health issues arisen as points of contention in the current rounds of major multilateral trade talks, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership? Frederick M. Abbott: Issues relating to public health are perhaps the major […]

Hery Rajaonarimampianina has won Madagascar’s first presidential election since a 2009 coup, according to provisional results announced by the country’s electoral commission. But Madagascar’s Special Election Court must rule on the definitive outcome after considering appeals and claims of fraud from rival candidate Jean Louis Robinson. The court has about 10 days to decide whether to verify the announced results of the Dec. 20 election, according to which Rajaonarimampianina, a former finance minister, won 53.5 percent of the vote, a comfortable seven-point margin over Robinson’s 46.5 percent. The court has already rejected conflicting submissions by both candidates, each seeking to […]

As 2014 begins, there is no shortage of conflict around the world. For sheer political drama, though, nothing compares to the events unfolding in Turkey, where Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan stands at the center of a high-intensity feud that is slowly tearing apart the once wide-ranging coalition that made him enormously powerful. A corruption investigation reaching into the highest levels of government has brought into the open a festering feud among rival Islamist groups. Every day brings new revelations involving some of the country’s most prominent figures, and each day the stakes grow. With every move, the question on […]

Editor’s note: This is the first of a seven-part series examining conditions in Afghanistan in the last year of U.S. military operations there. The series will run every Wednesday and will examine each of the country’s regional commands to get a sense of the country, and the war, America is leaving behind. This year, the bulk if not the entirety of international troops will leave Afghanistan; the few thousand likely to remain, pending agreement with Kabul, will mostly be concentrated on a handful of bases and serve in a training and advisory role for Afghan forces. In February, the number […]

Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has won the country’s 10th parliamentary elections in a disputed poll that was boycotted by the opposition and its allies and held amid large-scale violence that left at least 18 dead. Armed with a landslide “victory,” Hasina is set to form the next government even as questions are being raised about her legitimacy and the credibility of the elections. The opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) has demanded that the polls be declared null and void. A defiant Hasina, however, has claimed that the victory is legitimate and has said the BNP “made a mistake” by […]

President Barack Obama, according to pundits, is losing the Middle East. The charge recalls those leveled after Mao Zedong’s 1949 victory in the Chinese civil war, when anti-communists in the United States accused the Truman administration of “losing China.” While advocates of this position never explained how any feasible level of U.S. support could have staved off Chiang Kai-Shek’s defeat, the idea that refusing to back friendly dictators leads to preventable strategic disasters subsequently became ingrained in American thinking. It later inspired Lyndon Johnson’s refusal to disengage from Vietnam even when it became clear that the Saigon regime could not […]

Since President Rafael Correa came to power seven years ago, U.S. relations with Ecuador have been rocky. Most recently, in December 2013, the U.S. Agency for International Development decided to pull out of Ecuador in 2014 after the agency failed to reach an agreement with Quito over continued support of democracy promotion efforts, which the Correa administration regards as targeting the government. Just days later, the Correa government reacted angrily to a Washington Post report alleging that the CIA had offered crucial assistance to Colombia in a 2008 strike against FARC rebels in Ecuadorean territory; the U.S. had denied any […]

Thus far, China’s policy toward Afghanistan has followed Deng Xiaoping’s famous adage regarding how China should conduct itself in the international arena: “Observe calmly; secure our position; cope with affairs calmly; hide our capacities and bide our time; be good at maintaining a low profile; and never claim leadership.” But the planned withdrawal of most, if not all, Western combat forces from Afghanistan by the end of this year will require Beijing to consider new scenarios and approaches in the country. Chinese analysts recognize that on balance Beijing has benefited from the U.S. military effort in Afghanistan since, unlike many […]

The United States played an important role in facilitating the independence of South Sudan, the world’s newest country. Now U.S. leaders are watching the unfolding of an ethnic-tinged civil conflict that has already left hundreds dead and displaced around 200,000 people. Fighting broke out in the middle of last month between government forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and those allied with former Vice President Riek Machar, whom Kiir removed from office last year along with all his other ministers. Kiir accused Machar of orchestrating a coup against his government shortly before fighting began. While violence continues in parts of […]

Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree mandating the dissolution of RIA Novosti, the main state news agency, and its replacement with a new agency aimed at promoting Russia’s image. In an email interview, Jukka Pietiläinen, a senior researcher at the Aleksanteri Institute at the University of Helsinki, Finland, with expertise in Russian media and journalism, explained the relationship between the state and the media in Putin’s Russia. WPR: How has state involvement with media in Russia changed since Vladimir Putin’s return to the presidency? Jukka Pietiläinen: The Russian state has increased its presence in the media significantly […]

It is an absolute certainty that 2014 will be a turbulent year for the United Nations. The organization is struggling with crises ranging from the chaos in the Central African Republic (CAR) to the plight of Syrian refugees. There is little hope that these challenges will dissipate soon. Yet two sets of peace talks this month could well decide whether the U.N. faces a truly dreadful year ahead, or just a very difficult one. The first is already underway in Addis Ababa, where emissaries of the South Sudanese government and its opponents may or may not manage to reverse their […]

Ireland and Portugal, though dissimilar in many ways, share the distinction of being the first members of Europe’s troubled periphery to graduate from a bailout. They also share a pressing need to go beyond the budget austerity they have had to adopt and secure fundamental economic and financial reforms. In this, the two countries exemplify a more general need throughout the eurozone and underscore why, for all the gains made in dealing with this fiscal-financial crisis, Europe remains vulnerable to another crisis. There is much reason to cheer the successful emergence of these countries from their bailouts. In 2011, Ireland […]

The Italian political landscape is slowly changing. In the past few weeks, major shifts have occurred in the leadership and structure of both the key parties of the left-right coalition that is supporting the government of Prime Minister Enrico Letta. Developments in the center-right directly affected the size and composition of the parliamentary majority backing the cabinet. Due to his conviction for tax fraud, former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi was expelled from the Senate in late-November. Earlier that month, Berlusconi had decided to sink his People of Freedom Party (PdL) and relaunch Forza Italia, the movement of his 1994 political […]