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Editor’s Note: This is the second of a two-part briefing on Bolivia’s presidential election. Part I looked at domestic issues contributing to President Evo Morales’ success. Part II examines the regional significance of the Morales model of governance. When Bolivian President Evo Morales first won election in 2005, he quickly became one of the harshest critics of U.S. hemispheric policy. His brand of anti-American rhetoric fit in naturally with that of then-Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, so it was not surprising that under Morales, Bolivia became a member of the Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA), the coalition of leftist governments […]

In September, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif met with his Saudi counterpart, Saud al-Faisal, in New York in the latest attempt under Iranian President Hassan Rouhani to reduce the prevailing hostilities between Tehran and Riyadh. So far it appears the Saudi leadership has responded positively, creating a strong possibility of Iranian-Saudi relations entering a new phase, with a significant reduction of hostilities. There are even some indications that the improved relations could lead to a grand bargain between the two longtime regional rivals, with significant implications for the entire Middle East. Decades of rocky relations followed by heightened tensions […]

The story out of San Pedro Limon keeps changing. First, Mexican soldiers had killed 22 gang members in a late June shootout in a warehouse in the rural town some 95 miles southwest of Mexico City, according to the army’s official account. Then the Associated Press sent reporters to San Pedro Limon, where they found evidence not of a shootout but a massacre. A witness said that all but one of the gang members had actually surrendered before they were executed. Months passed before an official government investigation in mid-September, after which the Mexican Defense Department arrested an army officer […]

Over the next decade, the United States may play a smaller role in the management of global security, hold steady on its current course or even try returning to the halcyon days of unipolarity. But as Sun Tzu, the great philosopher of war, wrote, a military commander who tries to be strong everywhere ends up being strong nowhere. That also applies to grand strategy. So whatever course American strategy takes, the U.S. must have regional partners. While everyone recognizes that the U.S. must lean heavily on others, it can be easy to forget that strategic partnerships come in several varieties. […]

Editor’s Note: This is the first of a two-part briefing on Bolivia’s presidential election. Part I looks at domestic issues contributing to President Evo Morales’ success. Part II will examine the regional significance of the Morales model of governance. Unlike elections in neighboring Brazil and Uruguay, Bolivia’s presidential race is notably lacking in drama and suspense in the run-up to voting on Oct. 12. Despite some constitutional questions surrounding his candidacy and criticisms over how much power he has amassed, President Evo Morales appears headed for a landslide victory that would make him not only Bolivia’s longest-serving president, but the […]

Iran has a habit of surprising the West, and there is reason to expect important new surprises are on the way. In the not too distant future, a major change will take place at the top of Iran’s power hierarchy, and it will unfold mostly outside the view of Western analysts. Since there is no way of knowing exactly who will become the Islamic Republic’s third supreme leader, the West would do well to avoid excessively self-assured pronouncements on the matter. The most startling and embarrassing of all surprises for Washington came more than three decades ago. In 1977, the […]

Last week’s meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington provides a convenient benchmark to assess where U.S. foreign policy is as we approach the final stretch of the current administration. A consistent theme of Obama’s presidency has been the inability to pivot from crisis management to longer-term planning. With regard to the latter goal, the value of stronger ties with a rising power like India is clear. Yet, it is telling that the meeting took place even as the Obama administration struggles to manage the Ebola pandemic in West Africa, the fight against […]

Earlier today, fighters from the so-called Islamic State (IS) shot down an Iraqi military helicopter. In an email interview, Rick Brennan, a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation and former senior adviser to the U.S. military in Iraq from 2006-2011 who led a RAND study entitled “Ending the U.S. War in Iraq: The Final Transition, Operational Maneuver and Disestablishment of United Sates Forces —Iraq,” discussed the current air capabilities of the Iraqi military and its significance for both internal security and external defense. WPR: What air assets does the Iraqi army currently have, and what purchases—on order and planned—are […]

Last month, Brazil and Angola signed a Technical Memorandum of Understanding for the Brazilian navy to support the development of Angola’s naval capabilities. Angola will purchase seven Brazilian Macae patrol ships, four of them built in Brazil with Angolan personnel support, and three others in Angola. Brazil will also train Angolan military personnel and build a shipyard in Angola. The agreement is another sign of Brazil and Angola’s strategic partnership, following their 2010 Defense Cooperation Agreement and more recent pacts on naval and aeronautic cooperation. But it also fits into Angola’s broader strategy to secure its maritime borders to safeguard […]

In August, as U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry was about to embark on a trip to Myanmar for a set of regional meetings, more than 70 lawmakers drafted a letter to him warning that disturbing developments in the country called for a “significant recalibration” in U.S.-Myanmar ties. Coming more than two years after the Obama administration eased sanctions in response to historic reforms, the incident is just the latest episode revealing ongoing frictions among the White House, Congress and other actors over evolving U.S. policy in Myanmar. Since the transition from a military dictatorship to a nominally civilian government […]

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s five-day visit to the United States last week garnered massive media and think tank attention during the month before it occurred, but little coverage or reflection since then. This is mainly due to the limited concrete results achieved by the visit, compared to the heightened expectations of what some hoped the trip might achieve. Modi did meet with President Barack Obama and other senior U.S. officials. But he did not receive the lavish official attention shown his predecessor, Manmohan Singh, during Singh’s November 2009 state visit to Washington. Modi seemed to brush it off, expressing […]

Critics of democratic South Africa have long argued that the country maintains a Janus face toward the rest of the African continent. On one level it sees its future as inextricably bound up with that of the continent and it considers the promotion of stability, prosperity and conflict resolution in Africa as central pillars of its foreign policy. Yet on another level South Africa is viewed by its critics in Africa as a state that draws upon the language of interdependence and cooperation while ruthlessly pursuing its own narrow interests, often with scant regard for African sensitivities. This ongoing debate […]

Last week, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the United Nations General Assembly, met with business leaders in New York and held talks with U.S. President Barack Obama in Washington. Though no concrete deals were made, there was progress on improving the strained relationship between India and the U.S. The visit was also significant since Modi was denied a visa to the U.S. in 2004, owing to his failure as chief minister of Gujarat to prevent a 2002 outbreak of religious violence that left over 1,000 people dead. Unsurprisingly, strengthening economic ties was high on Modi’s agenda. During a breakfast […]

Throughout the Ukrainian crisis, Russia has demonstrated a keen appetite for both territory and power. It has shown less concern for international agreements and institutions. While Moscow has largely kept the United Nations out of the conflict, it has permitted the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe to monitor the situation on the ground. Even this looks like a mere ploy to deflect Western criticism: Russia has used OSCE peacemaking efforts backed by Germany as a cover for its efforts to destabilize Ukraine, and its proxies in the east of the country have menaced and kidnapped the organization’s observers. […]

In the U.S.-led coalition against the so-called Islamic State (IS), one country has remained relatively aloof: Israel, which has only provided some intelligence when asked. Israel has a good reason for this stance. Unlike Syria and Iraq, where IS controls swaths of territory, or Iraq, where its takeover of Mosul and other northern towns has weakened an already fragile state, it is not a direct threat to Israel. As a result, Israel does not want to get involved in what is amounting to a regional war. But IS does pose an indirect threat to Israel. And while Syrian militants from […]

On the edge of Damascus, Syrian rebels have united in an effort to break the crushing siege of the suburbs known as the Ghouta. And to do so, they have rallied behind the controversial but charismatic Zahran Alloush, the Salafist head of Jeish al-Islam (the Army of Islam) and one of the most prominent rebels in Syria. Syria’s rebels have announced alliances, mergers and charters in the past, but they have nonetheless remained largely atomized countrywide. While infighting among rebels unaffiliated with the so-called Islamic State (IS) has been exaggerated, cooperation has remained mostly ad hoc. Coordination has been hamstrung […]

Yesterday, the Egyptian judge who sentenced more than 1,200 alleged members of the Muslim Brotherhood to death earlier this year was unexpectedly removed from his bench. Judge Said Youssef was transferred from the criminal judiciary to the civilian judiciary, according to reports. His court, which investigated and tried terrorism cases—mostly against the Brotherhood—has been “dismantled,” he told The Associated Press. Could the judge’s demotion have wider significance in the yearlong crackdown against the Brotherhood under President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi? Given the scale of repression, any sign of an easing, like dismissing the internationally criticized judge responsible for so many convictions, bears […]