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Greek Foreign Minister Evangelos Venizelos has announced that he will visit Turkey later this month. That comes after Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades suspended peace talks with northern Cyprus last month when Turkey declared plans to search for oil and gas off the southern coast of the island. The island of Cyprus has been divided since 1974 between the predominantly Greek Cypriot south and mainly Turkish north. Only Turkey recognizes the latter as an independent country. The United Nations has maintained a peacekeeping force in Cyprus since 1964, the longest-running U.N. peacekeeping operation in existence. There was optimism for a long-sought […]

It was the poll that sent shockwaves through the nation. On Nov. 2, El Pais, Spain’s newspaper of record, unveiled what it called a “political earthquake.” Polling data suggested that Podemos, a left-wing party organized only in January of this year, was poised to win the 2015 national elections, besting the ruling, conservative Popular Party (PP), which enjoys a clear majority of seats in the Spanish parliament, and the leading opposition party, the venerable Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE), which last governed from 2004 to 2011. The poll showed that support for Podemos grew from 13.8 percent in October to 27.7 […]

Inside the United States, supporters of President Barack Obama have all sorts of explanations for the defeat handed the Democratic Party in last week’s midterm elections, which not only increased the Republican majority in the House of Representatives but also gave the GOP control of the Senate. Democrats’ failure to mobilize their traditional voters to turn out at the polls; accusations of voter-suppression techniques, which disproportionally impact those more likely to cast ballots for the Democratic Party; and the Republicans’ successful efforts at playing up anxieties about the economy, Ebola and the so-called Islamic State (IS) have all been put […]

Last week, Lt. Gen. Rizwan Akhtar took over as head of Pakistan’s Directorate for Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). In an email interview, Frederic Grare, senior associate and director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s South Asia program, discussed the evolution of ISI. WPR: How have ISI’s strategic priorities changed over the past decade as a result of the changing security and political realities in Afghanistan and India? Frederic Grare: This kind of question is difficult to answer for two reasons: The internal functions of intelligence systems around the world are opaque by necessity, and the ISI is no exception; and […]

One of the primary causes of political violence in Central America during the second half of the 20th century was the absence of democratic rule of law. Elected or not, political leaders were rarely held accountable under the law. Laws were established and applied in an arbitrary fashion. As former Brazilian President Getulio Vargas is alleged to have said, “For my friends, whatever they want; for my enemies, the law.” “Justice” was often served by individuals working outside of official state sanction—that is, paramilitaries and death squads. When the law was applied, it favored those in positions of authority, often […]

In the aftermath of the U.S. midterm congressional elections, the Obama administration’s ability to work with the new Republican-majority Congress has become a central question. One area where such cooperation will be crucial is in reforming export controls on defense equipment and technology. The Obama administration has made this a priority issue since assuming office in 2009, and this year some of its export control reform initiative has finally begun to achieve visible gains. But the administration’s ability to advance reforms alone is limited. Now Congress, newly united under the control of a single party, must step in and augment […]

The abrupt firing of Georgian Defense Minister Irakli Alasania last week has triggered the country’s most serious political crisis since the Georgian Dream-led coalition government came to power in October 2012. The departure of Alasania, popular at home and widely respected abroad, has raised questions about the durability of Georgia’s pro-Western foreign policy. But although Alasania spearheaded badly needed reforms in the Defense Ministry and was regarded as a guarantor of pro-Western policies within the coalition, his departure is unlikely to disrupt Georgia’s foreign policy—for now. The immediate origins of the crisis were the arrests of senior Defense Ministry officials […]

Last month, the ruling Botswana Democratic Party narrowly won a majority of seats in parliament. In an email interview, Gape Kaboyakgosi, senior research fellow at the Botswana Institute for Development and Policy Analysis, discussed Botswana’s domestic politics. WPR: What are the reasons behind the ruling Botswana Democratic Party’s (BDP) recent decline in support? Gape Kaboyakgosi: A number of factors led to the electoral decline of the BDP. First, for the first time ever, the BDP broke apart, leading to the formation of the Botswana Movement for Democracy (BMD) by several longtime BDP members. Their resignations deprived the BDP of experienced, […]

There were signs of easing tensions in some parts of the international system last week, but warnings of deepening crises on other fronts. It emerged that U.S. President Barack Obama had sent a private letter to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urging greater cooperation in the fight against the so-called Islamic State (IS) in Iraq. China and Japan agreed to step back from confrontation over the Senkaku Islands, claimed by Beijing as the Diaoyu. But Ukraine accused Russia of new military incursions on its territory, increasing the chances that the parlous cease-fire in the east of the country will […]

In a bid to protect its own interests in the Arctic, and wary of NATO’s growing attention to the region, Russia is set to reactivate former Soviet-era bases around the North Pole. But the Kremlin would do well to monitor the actions in the Arctic of its occasional partner and possible future rival, China, rather than those of its trans-Atlantic adversary. With global warming melting ice and making northern sea routes more passable, both Arctic and non-Arctic nations are competing for access to the mineral, hydrocarbon and fishing resources estimated to lie under the North Pole. The race is on, […]

The Russian ruble hit an all-time low of 48.7 rubles to the dollar earlier today, a casualty of escalating sanctions from the United States and the European Union in response to the conflict in Ukraine. Beyond the sanctions, Russia’s economic outlook is increasingly grim given the recent drop in global oil prices. At the same time, the Moscow Stock Exchange has announced that currency trades between the ruble and the Chinese yuan reached an all-time high in October, increasing 80 percent over the previous month. The increase in currency trading is a direct result of a currency swap deal Russia […]

Last week, opponents of Blaise Compaore, the long-serving de facto dictator of Burkina Faso, launched a series of demonstrations that have quickly led to a new government headed by Lt. Col. Isaac Zida. While this was a somewhat softer military coup than old-fashioned ones where officers marched civilian leaders out and shot them, it was a coup nonetheless. Washington is now scrambling to make sense of it. While Compaore’s ouster might send a useful signal to other de facto dictators who have clung to power for decades, the way it happened did not bode well for Africa’s fragile grasp on […]

Next week, China will host 20 heads of state at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders’ meeting in Beijing, the biggest international event held in China since President Xi Jinping took power in 2012. In addition to advancing some of APEC’s standard agenda items from previous years, China is expected to use the summit as a platform to push for several regional integration initiatives of its own. While these proposals do have economic benefits for other Asian nations, their progress may be undermined by differences among APEC members, principally the United States and China, over how to promote trade […]

In September, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte offered assistance to Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif on water management after a dike was breached, forcing over 700,000 Pakistanis to flee their homes. In an email interview, Mariska Heijs, training and research fellow at the Netherlands Institute of International Relations “Clingendael,” discussed the Netherlands’ water management diplomacy. WPR: How prominently does water management diplomacy fit into the Netherlands’ wider foreign aid and development policies, and what expertise does the Netherlands offer? Mariska Heijs: Water is one of the four themes of the Netherlands’ foreign aid and development policy, alongside security and […]

Almost a month after its general elections, with negotiations intensifying over potential ruling coalitions, Bosnia is confronted with two possible scenarios. If the political will for compromise prevails, the election results could enable the relatively swift establishment of stable governments at both the national and local levels. But if Bosnia’s irresponsible, hard-line and self-serving “politics as usual” lead to new deadlocks and delays in forming governments at the different administrative levels, it could further damage Bosnia’s already weak economic and social base and stoke new ethnic and social tensions. Which scenario emerges in the coming weeks and months will also […]

High-stakes political tensions are nothing new to the socialist government of Venezuela. The late President Hugo Chavez seemed to become invigorated by class struggle and the passionate protests it engendered. The strife energized his supporters and fortified the faithful. His heir, Nicolas Maduro, has also faced fierce opposition protests and has responded forcefully, imprisoning the most vociferous of opposition challengers. But the substance, character and context of complaints have changed. The challenge is growing exponentially riskier for the Venezuelan president. The street protests from regime opponents have quieted down, replaced with something much more ominous for Maduro. Just as Venezuela’s […]

Forty-three students are still missing in Mexico. That crisis has gripped the country since September, but it’s easy to forget that it followed another atrocity: the suspected killing of 22 gang members, execution-style, in late June by soldiers in a dingy warehouse outside San Pedro Limon, a small town south of Mexico City. The story of what happened in that warehouse shifted more than once, from a shootout to allegations of a massacre and the government’s promise of an investigation. Charges were filed; then Mexican authorities said they weren’t. But earlier this week, three Mexican soldiers were formally charged with […]