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For decades U.S. policy in the Middle East focused on two things: Israel and oil. Helping to keep Israel secure was not hard since the Israelis themselves had it well under control. Making sure that oil flowed was more challenging since most of it was owned by brittle monarchies or dictators, but the United States and its allies found a way. This emphasis on Israel and oil led to an American strategy that was remarkably consistent even when the White House changed hands. Its goal was stability built on partnerships with local states when possible and direct action if necessary. […]

On Thursday, Tunisia’s parliament adopted a series of articles in a new counterterrorism bill to replace its authoritarian 2003 law, part of the government’s efforts to bolster security in response to rising domestic and regional threats. Amid outcry from human rights groups, deputies overwhelmingly voted in favor of three provisions authorizing the death penalty for acts of terrorism, despite a de facto moratorium on executions that Tunisia has observed since 1991. Critics argue that the bill, which was issued following the March 26 attack on the Bardo museum that left 22 dead, falls short of international rights standards—notably in its […]

As the debate over the Iran nuclear deal begins in Congress, many of the arguments against the agreement reached by the U.S. and its P5+1 partners—France, the U.K., Russia, China and Germany—and Iran have taken on the appearance of theological opposition, where nothing short of full capitulation by the Iranians would satisfy critics. Other critiques have exaggerated the deal’s likely impact on the region or portrayed it in a distinctly one-sided manner. Furthermore, almost all of the deal’s critics have ignored the geopolitical impact it will have beyond the region, thereby overlooking a key benefit that advances U.S. interests—namely vis-a-vis […]

The crisis that first unfolded in Burundi in April when President Pierre Nkurunziza announced his bid for a third term entered a new phase last week, as an unidentified armed group clashed with the army in the north of the country near the Rwandan border. Amid rumors of Rwanda supporting the rebels, regional tensions mounted. At the same time, a new, self-declared National Council established by Burundian exiles and opponents of Nkurunziza emerged as a new form of political resistance to his efforts to hold onto power despite international condemnation and widespread protests at home. Yet while Nkurunziza’s opponents organized, […]

Just days after Iran and world powers signed an agreement to limit Iran’s nuclear program, another geopolitical tremor was felt across the region. It was no earthquake, not yet, but it was a new measure of the vast seismic shift that the nuclear deal is unleashing throughout the Middle East. Last Friday, the exiled leader of Hamas, Khaled Mashaal, traveled to Saudi Arabia from his home in Qatar, ending several years of deep chill in the relations between the Saudi kingdom and the radical Palestinian group that rules Gaza. Hamas officials described the visit, Mashaal’s first in three years, as […]

Last week, prosecutors in Brazil formally opened an investigation into alleged influence-peddling by former President Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva. The popular Brazilian leader is accused of using his position to benefit the Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht, Latin America’s largest engineering firm, between 2011, when he left office, and 2014. The corruption probe is only the latest headache for Lula’s successor, Dilma Rousseff, and a Brazilian political class shaken to the core by the ongoing Petrobras scandal, in which dozens of politicians and businessmen are under investigation for taking over $2.1 billion in kickbacks from the state-owned oil giant. Odebrecht’s […]

In trying to make sense of the recent nuclear deal with Iran and what it says about U.S. policy in the Middle East, the penultimate scene in “The Godfather” comes to mind. In it, the new godfather, Michael Corleone, wipes out his criminal rivals, the heads of New York’s five Mafia families and casino magnate Moe Greene. In recounting the day’s bloodletting, Michael subsequently says, “Today I settled all family business,” as he prepares to move the Corleone family to Nevada. This, minus the gangland shootings, is largely what the United States is trying to do with the Iran deal. […]

Ever since the end of the colonial period, in 1956 for Morocco and in 1962 for Algeria, France has had a complex and often ambivalent relationship with the two former colonies that formed the core of its North African empire. Social and economic ties have drawn all three countries closer together, but diplomatic tensions, usually involving Algeria, remain. In a recent reversal, however, Morocco has aired resentments over its colonial past after a series of recent spats with Paris, while Algeria has a newfound preference for closer French trade and security ties. French relations with Algiers were strained for many […]

Yesterday, the U.N. Security Council adopted Resolution 2231, which confirmed key provisions of the nuclear deal—officially known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)—adopted last week by Iran and its P5+1 negotiating partners, comprising the U.S., France, the U.K., Russia, China and Germany. In her speech marking the resolution’s enactment, Samantha Power, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, drew several lessons from the lengthy efforts to constrain Iran’s nuclear aspirations. These included the requirement for vigorous enforcement of global nonproliferation norms, the value of “tough, principled diplomacy,” the need for effective implementation of negotiated agreements and the imperative […]

Ever since the 2004 “Orange Revolution” that led to its first turn toward the West, Ukraine’s future alignment between Russia and the Euro-Atlantic bloc has been the subject of much debate and speculation. The promise of a durable Western shift, already dimmed by 2010, receded even further under the presidency of Viktor Yanukovych, who tried to steer a middle course between Moscow and Brussels with some success until pressure from Brussels and Moscow, but also Ukraine’s pro-European public opinion, made nonalignment no longer tenable. Since the Euromaidan protests that drove Yanukovych from power in February 2014 and through the emergence […]

Ties between Russia and Japan are slowly picking up steam again after a 16-month chill following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014. Earlier this month, Shotaro Yachi, Japan’s national security adviser, traveled to Moscow and met with his Russian counterpart to discuss President Vladimir Putin’s plans to visit Japan later this year. And despite ongoing tensions over Ukraine, there are also signs that Japan’s foreign minister, Fumio Kishida, may travel to Russia in the coming months to prepare for a potential Putin visit. Japan-Russia cooperation is also continuing on the security front with bilateral maritime security drills, focused primarily […]

A temporary truce between Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Saudi-led coalition against them, designed to allow humanitarian aid past Saudi Arabia’s naval blockade, was broken within hours earlier this month. In an email interview, Anthony Cordesman, the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, discussed Saudi Arabia’s naval capabilities. WPR: What are Saudi Arabia’s naval capabilities in terms of its fleet, its priorities and its operational readiness? Anthony Cordesman: The Saudi navy is the largest of the Gulf Arab states with up to 15,000 men and 3,000 marines. It has three destroyers, […]

Last month, India formally applied to join the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), and it hopes to become a full member of the group by the end of this year. In an email interview, Dinshaw Mistry, professor of political science and Asian studies at the University of Cincinnati, discussed the impact of MTCR membership on India’s missile program. WPR: What impact will joining the Missile Technology Control Regime have on India’s missile programs, in terms of any changes and limitations New Delhi has had or will have to implement? Dinshaw Mistry: The MTCR requires its members to control the transfer—to […]

Can international legal mechanisms defuse tensions among the West, Russia and China? Last week, U.S. and European officials praised their Chinese and Russian counterparts for helping seal the nuclear deal with Iran. Yet there were warning signs of new spats with Beijing and Moscow over the South China Sea and Ukraine. These tensions concern not only the countries’ core national interests, but also their readiness to submit these interests to legal reviews. China and Russia seem determined to ensure that, as great powers, they cannot be contained through international law. In The Hague, the low-profile but august Permanent Court of […]

In a scene reminiscent of a Hollywood movie, Mexican drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman escaped last week from a maximum-security prison that was allegedly Mexico’s most secure. On the evening of July 11, he apparently climbed down through a two-by-two-foot hole underneath his cell’s shower, only to reappear above ground at the end of a mile-long tunnel, in a bare building under construction. Ominously, one of his sons had reportedly tweeted a few days prior, “All things come to those who wait,” while several “narcocorridos,” or popular drug ballads, had predicted El Chapo’s prison break. Eighteen months after having […]

Last week, at least 22 Algerians died in clashes between ethnic Arabs and Berbers in the oasis city of Ghardaia, where tensions have grown for the last two years between the two communities over jobs, housing and land. In an email interview, Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck, a research analyst at the Carnegie Middle East Center, discussed ethnic violence in Algeria. WPR: What are the reasons behind the violent clashes between Arabs and Berbers in recent years? Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck: The conflict between the Arabs and Berbers in Algeria dates back to 1975, when clashes broke out between the two communities for unknown reasons. […]

Nations going to war often believe the fighting will end quickly. A lightning campaign or two, a few battles and the enemy will fold. Few nations plan for a long war. Despite this, long wars do happen, normally when the belligerents overestimate their own prowess and underestimate the determination and capability of their enemies. For most of its history the United States worked on the same assumption, entering wars with the expectation that they would be short. The world wars and the Cold War were exceptions, but after the demise of the Soviet Union, Americans again believed all their wars […]