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Over two days last week, senior diplomatic officials gathered in Islamabad to participate in the Heart of Asia conference, a forum of Afghanistan’s neighbors and major international supporters that has been held annually since 2011. Despite domestic criticism over his outreach to Pakistan, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani attended the meeting, where participants, including Pakistan, China and the United States, voiced their support for the resumption of peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban. Also in attendance was India’s foreign minister, Sushma Swaraj, marking the highest-level visit by an Indian diplomatic official to Pakistan since Indian Prime Minister Narendra […]

People who write about international politics inevitably make a lot of incorrect predictions. It is sometimes useful to look back and ask why our prognostications were wrong. At the start of this year, I asked, “Where will international stabilization forces intervene in 2015?” My best guesses were Ukraine, Nigeria, Libya and Syria. There has been much talk about deploying peacekeepers to these war zones over the ensuing 12 months, but markedly less action. In retrospect, it seems clear that governments and international organizations have taken a cautious approach to mounting new missions in high-risk environments in 2015. But there are […]

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR’s editor-in-chief, Judah Grunstein, joins host Peter Dörrie in the Briefing to discuss the issues dominating global politics this week, including Cuba’s migrant crisis, the COP21 climate conference and France’s military strategy in Africa. For the Report, Sebastian Strangio joins us to talk about the challenges of Myanmar’s ongoing democratization. Listen: Download: MP3Subscribe: iTunes | RSS Relevant WPR coverage: Obama’s Cuba Policy Triggers Unintended Migrant Crisis Sidetracked: Obama’s Cybersecurity Legacy Is COP21 Climate Change Deal Multilateralism’s Swan Song? France’s Overstretched Military Not Enough to Stabilize the Sahel Great Expectations: Will Myanmar’s Election Bring Real […]

All wars are tragedies, often victimizing most the people who had least to do with starting them and no ability to stop them. But beyond this common feature, each war is usually very different. This can make it difficult to draw generalizations and prepare for tomorrow’s conflict. Nonetheless it is important to look for the signposts of future war in current ones and prepare as much as possible. This is particularly true for the United States as it continues to try and build or manage global stability. Among today’s violent conflicts, the wars in Iraq, Syria and Ukraine seem to […]

The politically motivated prosecution last month of opposition leader Sam Rainsy was a rude interruption to Cambodia’s so-called culture of dialogue, the name for the political settlement Cambodia’s government and the opposition reached in 2014 after contested elections. The interruption to this rapprochement was not very surprising: Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen is Asia’s longest-serving ruler, and he has not achieved this feat by acting benignly toward his political opponents. As Stephanie Giry documented in Foreign Affairs, over the course of his 30 years in power, Hun Sen has “coaxed or cowed, corrupted or co-opted, defanged, sidelined, or otherwise neutralized […]

European leaders are meeting in Brussels on Thursday and Friday for the final European Union summit of 2015. Dominating the agenda is the refugee crisis. As of Dec. 17, more than 956,000 migrants, including refugees, have arrived in Europe by sea this year, according to the International Organization for Migration. The EU and its member states are still struggling to develop a common response. The latest idea, proposed by Germany and France earlier this month, is to create a standing, 2,000-member strong EU border and coast guard force. But like every other EU response to the refugee crisis, that has […]

On Nov. 8, an estimated 30 million people took part in Myanmar’s first free national election in a quarter-century. From the shores of the Andaman Sea to the Himalayan uplands, many lined up in the pre-dawn gloom before voting stations officially opened at 6 a.m. Vying for citizens’ votes across some 1,171 constituencies were 6,189 candidates from a total of 93 parties. For most voters, however, it came down to two. On one side was the ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), the drab political proxy of the powerful Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military, which has ruled the country for more […]

Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s trip to Qatar two weeks ago was his second to the tiny oil- and gas-rich Arab state since he was elected Turkey’s president last year. The visit was significant because it inaugurated the first High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council meeting between the two countries, a mechanism created last year to deepen bilateral cooperation in strategic sectors. During Erdogan’s visit, 16 separate agreements were signed for everything from education and maritime affairs to travel and energy. Some of the agreements—such as cooperation on archives, credential recognition in the maritime industry and public finance management—were technical in nature. Others, such […]

In an ironic example of the Law of Unintended Consequences, President Barack Obama’s effort to normalize relations with Cuba has triggered a new humanitarian crisis, a serious diplomatic standoff in the Americas, and a renewed sense of panic among many Cubans that, if not addressed effectively, could lead to even greater problems. As soon as Obama and his Cuban counterpart, President Raul Castro, simultaneously announced an agreement to start thawing diplomatic ties back in December 2014, officials in the South American nation of Ecuador noticed something rather curious happening: a sharp upswing in the number of Cubans turning up at […]

Editor’s note: This article is part of an ongoing WPR series on the impact of corruption and various countries’ efforts to combat it. Earlier this month, Tanzanian President John Magufuli fired the head of the ports authority along with several high-ranking officials in the Transport Ministry for their alleged corruption. In an email interview, Semkae Kilonzo, the coordinator at Policy Forum, a network of nongovernmental policy organizations in Tanzania, discussed the country’s fight against corruption. WPR: How big of a problem is corruption in Tanzania, and in what areas—including which levels of government—is its impact most felt? Semkae Kilonzo: Corruption, […]

The New York Times reported Sunday that, in the face of significant Taliban gains in southern Afghanistan’s Helmand province, the United States is once again committing troops and air power to the fight. According to the Times, “the extent of the American role has been kept largely secret, with senior Afghan officials in the area saying they are under orders not to divulge the level of cooperation.” Pentagon officials are allegedly concerned that the ramped-up U.S. involvement “may suggest” that the U.S. combat role in Afghanistan, which was supposed to have ended, is going far beyond the “train, advise and […]

In June 2014, headlines sounded the alarm over an influx of unaccompanied minors clandestinely entering the U.S. from Central America. While the story has largely receded from view, the crisis continues. In recent years, more than 100,000 Central American children have undertaken the perilous 3,000-mile journey to the United States, exposing themselves to extortion, kidnapping, rape and murder along the way. According to U.S. Customs and Border Protection, more than 68,000 unaccompanied minors, ranging in ages from less than 1 to 17 years old, were apprehended at the Southwest border between October 2013 and September 2014. Among them were more […]

Editor’s note: This article is part of an ongoing WPR series on the impact of falling oil and commodities prices on resource-exporting countries. Recently elected Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that his government is ready to use fiscal stimulus in order to boost Canada’s economy, which continues to suffer from the ongoing decline in commodities prices. In an email interview, Donald Drummond, an adjunct professor and Stauffer-Dunning fellow at Queen’s University, discussed Canada’s economy and the impact of the commodities bust. WPR: How important are commodities for Canada’s economy, and what impact have falling commodities prices had on jobs, […]

With the end of his second term in sight, debates about President Barack Obama’s legacy in various policy areas are underway. When it comes to national security, his administration will be the first for which cybersecurity will feature prominently in legacy terms. Although former President George W. Bush focused on cybersecurity more than his predecessor, 9/11 and the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq determined his administration’s national security legacy. Obama entered office intending to make cybersecurity a priority, and it became a major feature of his administration’s national security efforts—just not in the ways he had envisioned. Examining the gap […]

More than any other outside power, France is currently investing the most military and political resources to combat terrorist groups in West Africa and the wider Sahel. Driven by a perception of a clear and present danger, French security policy in the region has undergone a fundamental shift in recent years, but not in the direction that many policymakers in Paris had hoped at the beginning of the century. Instead of slowly decreasing its military presence and political involvement in its former colonies’ internal affairs, France has stepped up both amid new realities and interests. Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian […]

ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates—The encouraging news that a seven-day cease-fire took effect in Yemen today as peace talks to end the country’s civil war got underway in Switzerland will bring relief to Yemenis, but also to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The Saudi-led coalition fighting on behalf of the country’s president, Abedrabbo Mansour Hadi, has had mixed results at best. And a prolonged military engagement there would not enhance regional security, while making it harder to coordinate policies on Syria. But the Gulf states hold diverse views about how to move forward on the other acute problems in the […]

Editor’s note: This article is part of an ongoing WPR series on the impact of corruption and various countries’ efforts to combat it. Last month, the European Union released its annual progress report for Montenegro, which highlighted the need for further government reforms to tackle persistent corruption. In an email interview, Vanja Calovic, the executive director of MANS, a nongovernmental organization that fights corruption and organized crime in Montenegro, discussed corruption there. WPR: How big of a problem is corruption in Montenegro, and in what areas is its impact most felt? Vanja Calovic: Montenegro has been guided by the same […]