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The ouster of Ahmet Davutoglu as prime minister of Turkey is an internal matter. But it will almost certainly have negative repercussions for the hard-fought and controversial deal between Turkey and the European Union, by which Brussels agreed to compensate Ankara for helping to stem the flow of refugees and migrants to Europe. It’s the latest of several cases where domestic political dramas have affected the foreign policy interests of important middle powers. Last week, a long-simmering power struggle between Davutoglu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan came to a boil. Erdogan had recently cajoled or convinced others in his […]

The next NATO summit, set for July in Warsaw, is arguably one of the most important meetings of the alliance’s heads of state in the post-Cold War era. European security is at its worst since the end of the Cold War, while Europe finds itself facing a range of serious internal challenges, including continued slow economic growth, the influx of migrants and refugees and the rise of extremist parties. The United States, on the other hand, is distracted by its own poisoned domestic politics and must contend with security challenges in not only Europe, but also the Middle East and […]

Expectations for change in Cuba grew following the historic thaw in U.S.-Cuban relations that began in December 2014, and gained momentum with U.S. President Barack Obama’s equally historic visit to the island in March 2016. How have these epoch-making transformations altered Cuba’s newly dynamic domestic reality, which is often inaccurately assumed to be both monolithic and monochromatic? On one hand, Havana has responded by circling the wagons of the state and doubling down on political centralization under President Raul Castro and los historicos, as the old-guard revolutionaries are known. On the other, a variety of actors in Cuban society—including political […]

Editor’s note: This article is part of an ongoing WPR series on the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the potential impact on members’ economies. Last month, the C.D. Howe Institute, a research institute based in Toronto, released a report saying Canada would see modest economic gains from membership in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). In an email interview, Patricia Goff, a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, discussed the potential impact of the TPP on Canada’s economy. WPR: What are the expected economic benefits and potential downsides for Canada from the TPP, and who are the expected “winners” and “losers”? […]

It is time for the United Nations to start thinking seriously about Donald Trump, for the simple reason that Trump is thinking seriously about the United Nations. The presumptive Republican presidential nominee told the New York Times last week that he has been mulling some potential U.N. ambassadors. Having electrified the GOP, he hopes to have an equally stunning impact on U.N. diplomacy. “The U.N. isn’t doing anything to end the big conflicts in the world,” he noted with his usual acuity, “so you need an ambassador who would win by really shaking up the U.N.” This is likely to […]

South Sudan’s original political odd couple is back together again. In late April, President Salva Kiir watched over the swearing in of his very recent rival and enemy, Riek Machar, as first vice president before declaring that the ceremony marked “the end of the war and the return of peace and stability to South Sudan.” Is Kiir right? While the homecoming for Machar, the vice president-turned-rebel leader, is a crucial initial step in returning peace to South Sudan, it is only that. And it would be dangerous to reduce the peace process to simply the state of the relationship between […]

On Monday, the United States and Senegal signed a deal to facilitate U.S. troop access to the West African country, in the latest example of the American military’s expanding presence in Africa. The deal authorizes the creation of infrastructure that enables quick deployment for U.S. forces; once the construction of new facilities is completed, American troops won’t have to start from scratch in the event of a crisis or attack. The agreement comes in the context of West Africa’s increasingly precarious security, with rising threats from militant groups such as al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), Boko Haram and the […]

In this week’s Trend Lines podcast, WPR editor-in-chief Judah Grunstein and senior editor Frederick Deknatel discuss Honduras’ corrupt police force, transitional justice in Cote d’Ivoire, and the political prospects for Turkey, Syria and Iraq’s Kurds. For the Report, Khaled Hroub joins us to talk about Hamas’ options for ending Gaza’s isolation. Listen: Download: MP3Subscribe: iTunes | RSS Relevant articles from WPR: Police Scandal in Honduras Could Lead to Even More Militarized Policing Gbagbo’s Trial Is the Latest Sign of Victor’s Justice in Cote d’Ivoire Kurds in Iraq, Turkey and Syria Vacillate Between Hope and Despair Can Hamas Afford the Cost […]

Growing disorder throughout the Middle East has created the possibility for major changes to the status of Kurdish minorities in Iraq, Turkey and Syria. At a time when the region is shaken by sectarian divisions and upheavals, Kurds have emerged as critical actors in providing security and stability. Kurdish military gains in Syria and Iraq, along with initial political gains in Turkey after last June’s elections, gave a boost to their self-confidence in 2015. However, with internal challenges and unending battles, that self-confidence has since been punctured. In December 2015, Massoud Barzani, the president of Iraq’s semiautonomous Kurdistan Regional Government […]

Two years ago the conflict between the self-styled Islamic State (ISIS) and the government of Iraq saw dramatic, unexpected shifts, as large swaths of territory and major cities changed hands. The battle lines moved back and forth. For a while it seemed that the extremists might march triumphantly into Baghdad. But then the Iraqi government and security forces regained their bearing and held on. Slowly the tide turned, at least a bit. Since then, anti-ISIS militias have grown stronger; U.S. air attacks have crippled the group; and the coalition fighting the movement has made strides in shutting down its access […]

Last month, Solonandrasana Olivier Mahafaly became prime minister of Madagascar after Jean Ravelonarivo resigned, ostensibly, due to disagreements with President Hery Rajaonarimampianina over development policy. In an email interview, Professor Richard R. Marcus, the director of the Global Studies Institute at California State University, Long Beach, discussed politics in Madagascar and the country’s political reconciliation. WPR: What are the reasons behind Madagascan Prime Minister Jean Ravelonarivo’s resignation? Richard Marcus: Ravelonarivo was brought in to perform an impossible role. His predecessor, Roger Kolo, survived only 276 days in office, largely due to his confrontations with President Rajaonarimampianina and his inability to […]

Documents recently released by Honduran newspaper El Heraldo revealed what many Hondurans had long suspected: the presence of a hit squad within the police tasked with carrying out assassinations of law enforcement officials. In December 2009, Honduras’ anti-drug chief, Gen. Julian Aristides Gonzalez, was killed in his car in front of his daughter’s school in the capital, Tegucigalpa. His assassination came just days after he revealed the discovery of clandestine airstrips in Olancho, the country’s largest department and a hub for drug trafficking. His associate and former head of the anti-narcotics commission, Gustavo Alfredo Landaverde, was killed two years later […]

Venezuela’s unraveling is gathering speed. The country is now on course for an extended period of uncertainty, with a probably momentous and possibly dangerous outcome lying in wait. This does not come as a surprise. A few months ago, I described Venezuela’s shambolic start to what promised to be a dramatic year. That was not a risky prediction. Anyone watching the country’s trajectory could see disaster coming. The question now is, How will this end? A number of possible scenarios come to mind, some of them very troubling. The events of the past few days mark a sharp escalation in […]

Last month, during a visit to Jerusalem, Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu agreed to expand cyberdefense cooperation. In an email interview, Emanuel Shahaf, CEO of Technology Asia Consulting, discussed Israel’s ties with Singapore. WPR: What have Israel’s ties with Singapore been like historically, and how have they evolved? Emanuel Shahaf: Singapore’s relationship with Israel started after the newly created Asian city-state requested Egypt’s assistance with setting up its military but was rebuffed. Israel responded positively, and the rest is history. During Singapore’s formative years, the relationship was primarily centered on military cooperation ranging […]

When it comes to the Arab-Israeli conflict, I am decidedly on the dovish side of the fence. I am a strong supporter of the two-state solution. I have written that Israel is on the path to becoming an apartheid state. I have called for the United States government to more forcefully condemn Israeli settlement construction in the West Bank and to unilaterally recognize a Palestinian state. And yet, I find myself increasingly alienated from the political left when it comes to discussions of Israel and Palestine. The reason is simple: I am a Zionist. I believe that the Jewish people, […]

Five years after Cote d’Ivoire’s 2011 post-election crisis came to a bloody end, the trial of former First Lady Simone Gbagbo for crimes against humanity is set to open this month in Abidjan, the country’s biggest city and economic hub. More than 3,000 people were killed, 150 women raped and hundreds of thousands displaced during five months of fighting after Gbagbo’s husband, then-incumbent President Laurent Gbagbo, refused to step down despite losing the November 2010 presidential runoff vote to challenger Alassane Ouattara. Simone Gbagbo’s trial will mark the first time an Ivoirian court has dealt with international crimes committed during […]

Editor’s note: This article is part of an ongoing WPR series on the impact of falling oil and commodities prices on resource-exporting countries. Last week at a mining industry event, Chilean President Michelle Bachelet gave a speech about the need for Chile to create a “post-copper economy.” In an email interview, Leonardo Letelier, the director of the Institute of Public Affairs at the University of Chile, discussed the impact of the commodities bust on Chile’s economy. WPR: How important are commodities for Chile’s economy, and what impact have falling commodities prices had on the economy and in turn domestic politics? […]