When long-time Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad fled the country Sunday in the face of a lightning advance by anti-regime rebels, reaction south of the border in Israel was much like in the rest of the world: astonishment at the speed of events and happiness that the brutality Assad inflicted on the Syrian people had come to an end. The positive sentiment, however, was tempered by a measure of apprehension over Israel’s own security.
Syria, after all, lies just over Israel’s northern border. And although it has played a key role in Iran’s strategy of encircling Israel with partners and proxies, Assad had taken care to not engage in direct clashes during his decades in power. Because of that, since the start of Syria’s civil war, Israel saw Assad as the devil it knew, making him preferable to the uncertainty of some of the alternatives who might have replaced him had he fallen.
If Assad’s departure now brings peace and stability to Syria, while ending Iran’s dominance there, that would translate into a significant improvement in Israel’s security situation. Conversely, if Syria turns into an Islamist-dominated jihadist state or devolves into chaos, anarchy and a free-for-all among armed radical groups, it could create serious new headaches.