The abrupt fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad following the lightning offensive of rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, may very well put regional reconciliations across the Middle East over the past four years to the ultimate test.
This is particularly true for the Gulf Cooperation Council, or GCC, member states and Turkey, whose stances on Syria had diverged, if to varying degrees. They will continue to do so in the aftermath of Assad’s ouster, as HTS seeks to consolidate control over the country and efforts toward reconstruction begin.
As the peaceful protests against Assad in 2011 evolved into a brutal civil war, the conflict also became a fierce geopolitical struggle between Turkey and the GCC on one hand, and Iran on the other. But divergence between Ankara and some of the Gulf states in terms of preferred partners on the ground turned Syria into an object of regional power struggles. These were exacerbated by tensions between the two sides over the Saudi and Emirati-led blockade of Qatar—a partner of Turkey’s—in 2017.