Mohammed al-Bashir has been appointed caretaker PM of the transitional Syrian government until March 1, 2025. Al-Bashir had previously been head of the administration overseeing Idlib province, which until two weeks ago was the only territory held by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, the group that led the lightning offensive that ousted former President Bashar al-Assad. (Reuters)
Our Take
For now at least, it appears that the worst-case scenarios for Syria’s transfer of power have been avoided, with daily life in Damascus reportedly starting to return to normal. Today, then, we’re taking a look at the implications of regime change there for great power competition and the external actors involved in the country.
Russia is likely to take the biggest hit from the transfer of power. After all, the effectiveness of the HTS-led surprise offensive was already in part attributable to Russia’s weakened ability to project force to the region the way it did prior to having focused its attention and resources on its invasion of Ukraine. The fall of Assad will only further exacerbate that weakness. Should the new government end Russia’s military presence in the country, Moscow stands to lose a naval base on the Mediterranean Sea and an airfield that it has used as a logistical hub supporting its operations across the Middle East and Africa.