The Syrian civil war that has decimated the country for more than a decade, provoking a regional humanitarian crisis and drawing in actors ranging from the United States to Russia, has been drawing inexorably to a conclusion for years now. President Bashar al-Assad, with the backing of Iran and Russia, has emerged militarily victorious from the conflict, which began after his government violently repressed civilian protests in 2011. The armed insurgency that followed soon morphed into a regional and global proxy war that, at the height of the fighting, saw radical Islamist groups, including the Islamic State, seize control over vast swathes of the country. They subsequently lost almost all the territory they controlled in the face of sustained counteroffensives by pro-government forces as well as a U.S.-led coalition of Western militaries.
Though the fighting has waned in the past few years, parts of the country—such as the northwestern Idlib region—remain outside of government control. Periodic skirmishes there are a reminder that the conflict, though winding down, could still flare back up and escalate. The situation in the northeast also remains volatile, with Turkish, Syrian and Russian forces all now deployed in the region, alongside proxies and Syrian Kurdish militias. Now the Israel-Hamas war has added another potential flashpoint, with Iran-backed militias in Syria having already targeted U.S. forces still operating there.
The war’s humanitarian cost has been staggering. The estimated death toll is 400,000 people, but it could actually be much higher. And at various points in the conflict, more than half of the country’s population was displaced. The United Nations Refugee Agency estimates that more than 5 million people have fled Syria since the fighting started, putting a significant strain on neighboring countries as well as Europe. Even as the conflict winds down, it is unclear when or if they will be able to return.
Once the war finally comes to an end, Assad will still face the challenge of rebuilding the country. The question of who will foot the bill remains an open one. The U.S. and European countries are loath to work with Assad, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine makes it unlikely the U.S. and its Western partners will cooperate with Moscow either. And Moscow is unlikely to take on the costs of reconstruction, which the United Nations has estimated at $250 billion. Former U.S. President Donald Trump was eager to distance the U.S. from the situation in Syria, while President Joe Biden has all but ignored the conflict.
WPR has covered the Syrian civil war in detail and continues to examine key questions about what will happen next. Will the Assad regime be able to turn its regional reintegration into funding for Syria’s reconstruction? What role will Iran and the militias it supports continue to play in the country? And will the U.S. ever withdraw its forces from Syria, now that the conflict no longer commands popular attention? Below are some of the highlights of WPR’s coverage.
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The U.S. Should Start Planning Its Exit From Iraq and Syria
While an exit by U.S. forces from Syria and Iraq is unlikely in the near term, it also seems inevitable. That raises the questions of why U.S. forces are still in both countries. Despite the fraught politics around withdrawal in Washington, it’s time policymakers start thinking about how best to bring those troops home
Editor’s note: This article was originally published in July 2019 and is regularly updated.