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Trong Left a Lot of Ticking Time Bombs for Vietnam’s Next Leader

Trong Left a Lot of Ticking Time Bombs for Vietnam’s Next Leader
High-ranking Vietnamese officials, including President To Lam, second from the right, help soldiers carry the coffin of former Communist Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, in Hanoi, Vietnam, July 26, 2024 (AP photo by Minh Hoang).

In mid-July, Nguyen Phu Trong, the long-time general secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party and former Vietnamese president, died at age 80. His death comes at a time of political uncertainty in Vietnam, following several abrupt changes in the country’s leadership due to alleged corruption scandals in the past few years. His successor, when one is named, will have to reestablish stability in Hanoi in order to reassure international investors about the country’s economic stewardship. But in terms of policy, we can expect more continuity than change moving forward.

Although he assumed senior positions relatively late in life, Trong had a significant impact, dramatically changing Vietnam’s politics, foreign policy and society. Since first becoming party general secretary in 2011, he consolidated power in the party’s formerly consensus-based decision-making system; launched an anti-corruption battle that also allowed him to purge his political opponents; cracked down on popular dissent; and adopted a bolder foreign policy that also re-empowered the Vietnamese military. Most of these approaches will almost surely be embraced by his successor. Indeed, the Trong-era shifts make it possible for Vietnam’s next leader to wield almost dictatorial powers. However, this could add fuel to growing popular anger in Vietnam over the Communist Party’s governance.

Trong assumed his first five-year term as general secretary after having held various positions as a party ideologue. During his second term as general secretary, he also took over the presidency, an unheard-of accumulation of roles in recent Vietnamese history.

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