After four years out of office, former U.S. President Donald Trump is now once again the president-elect. The outcome of Tuesday’s election was surprising, if not shocking. Most polls forecast a close outcome, with the chance of either Trump or his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, winning amounting to a coin flip. Others, including myself, predicted a Harris victory, even a convincing one. The basis of those predictions was that turnout would be high and would favor the Democratic Party. Turnout was high, though lower than in 2020, and the outcome was not particularly close. But that instead favored the Republican Party and Trump.
He now joins Grover Cleveland as the only U.S. president to win two nonconsecutive terms in office. In doing so, Trump secured a majority of the Electoral College vote, but also, unlike in 2016, a majority of the popular vote. The victory broke a string of poor election performances by Trump himself since barely winning the presidency in 2016: In all subsequent elections in which he played a key role, whether by endorsing candidates for Congress and the Senate or by running himself, the Republican Party underperformed.
It truly seemed that Trump was a drag on his party and that this would carry over into his 2024 presidential run. But that did not happen—at all. While high turnout has traditionally favored Democrats, that tendency has changed in recent years, and Tuesday’s election was a key example. Trump gained support in rural areas, as was expected, but also in urban areas, which wasn’t. Down ticket, the Republicans won control of the Senate and appear poised to retain control of the House of Representatives. In other words, it was a clear win for Trump and the Republican Party.