Today’s Top Story

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met in London today with U.K. PM Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, as the Ukrainian leader continued his push for more military aid as well as support for allowing Kyiv to fire Western-made long-range missiles into Russia. Zelenskyy is also set to meet with the leaders of Italy, France and Germany in their respective capitals today and tomorrow. (The Guardian)

Our Take

Zelenskyy’s whirlwind tour of European capitals comes only two weeks after his visit to the U.S., which included a similar flurry of high-level talks at the U.N. General Assembly in New York as well as in Washington. In the U.S. and today in London, Zelenskyy reportedly presented his secretive “victory plan” for how to end the war with Russia.

But while Zelenskyy is clearly intent on continuing to push for support, the flurry of high-level meetings have only highlighted the quandary that Ukraine finds itself in as officials in the West all wait for the outcome of the U.S. presidential election in November before moving ahead with any plans for Ukraine, let alone a “victory plan.”

Without a doubt, the stakes for Ukraine in the U.S. election are high. A victory for former President Donald Trump, who has refused to even say that he wants Ukraine to win the war, could result in the U.S. withdrawing aid to Kyiv, which would leave Zelenskyy and Ukraine’s allies in Europe scrambling. Vice President Kamala Harris, meanwhile, has been steadfast in her support for Ukraine.

As a result of this uncertainty, which has been building for some time, Ukraine has made some efforts to increase its own security autonomy. The country has ramped up its domestic defense manufacturing industry, and today, Ukraine’s parliament approved the first wartime tax hike to pay for increased defense spending.

Still, the reality on the battlefield is that the long war of attrition is resulting in slow but steady territorial gains for Russia. And while war can and often does produce surprises, it is difficult to see how Ukraine can now reverse that trend, considering Russia’s advantage in terms of the sheer size and scale of its military. Zelenskyy would likely argue that more access to and freedom to use Western weaponry could change the war’s course, but so far that has not been the case.

Even if Harris wins next month, then, Kyiv and its allies have a tough choice ahead of them: continue with an extremely destructive war that, while it could turn around, currently shows no indication of reaching an imminent inflection point, let alone an endpoint; or confront the distasteful option of finding a negotiating position to end the fighting, even if an agreement with Russia holds the risk of not being durable. It’s possible that Zelenskyy is already confronting this question, with Ukraine’s incursion into Russian territory in August an effort to give Kyiv a stronger hand in future negotiations.

This is a grim outlook, which speaks to a broader concern for Ukraine: popular resignation among those who are not directly affected by the war. As we wrote earlier this week, that same sort of resignation appears to be setting in for the Israel-Hamas war. Ukraine has been dealing with the same issue for a while now, and being stuck in limbo until at least Nov. 5 certainly hasn’t helped.

For more: Read all our coverage of the war in Ukraine here.

On Our Radar

Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu visited New Delhi on Monday for a state dinner and talks with Indian PM Narendra Modi, who promised over $750 million in aid to the island country. The largesse was an effort to woo Muizzu, who won the Maldives’ recent presidential on an “India out” platform. It’s just the latest example of how Modi is using India’s fast-growing economy as a diplomatic asset and a way to compete with China.

Modi has notched a number of diplomatic successes in recent years, and he has spent much of his time in office carefully constructing a narrative of a “New India” that is open for business and ready for a seat at the table where global affairs are shaped. But as Stuti Bhatnagar wrote in February, India’s foreign policy continues to face enduring challenges, including New Delhi’s waning influence in its immediate region, as on display in the Maldives.

Modi’s Diplomatic Triumphs Haven’t Solved India’s Enduring Challenges

Feb. 21, 2024 | Prime Minister Narendra Modi had a big year for foreign policy. But India continues to face enduring challenges in global affairs. Read more.

As he nears 100 days in office, U.K. PM Keir Starmer has already faced a number of setbacks, including the resignation of his chief of staff this past weekend and a scandal related to accepting gifts, which he has since paid back. Most notably, Starmer’s approval rating has plunged 45 points since the Labour Party won a landslide victory in general elections in July.

Starmer’s biggest challenge is that his party’s agenda involves many policies in which the benefits will not become clear for many years, in some cases not until after the next general elections. As Alexander Clarkson wrote after the July vote, in order for Starmer and Labour to succeed, they will need to balance this challenge with the public’s clear impatience for quick results.

In the U.K., Starmer Has a Long To-Do List and Not Much Time

July 10, 2024 | New PM Keir Starmer will need to balance public impatience for quick results with effective policies that lead to long-term success. Read more.

On Monday, NATO will begin its annual nuclear drills, two weeks of exercises in which roughly 2,000 military personnel simulate missions that would involve nuclear warheads. The drills come at a time when Russian President Vladimir Putin has engaged in increased saber-rattling over nuclear weapons. But as Paul Poast wrote last month, while Putin’s rhetoric has gotten the most attention, all nuclear powers consistently offer reminders of the arsenals they possess—and their willingness to use them.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. pressed ASEAN leaders and China to speed up negotiations to finalize a South China Sea code of conduct at a joint summit between the regional bloc and Chinese officials today. Negotiations for the code began in 2017 but have stalled repeatedly in the face of growing Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. Read more about why ASEAN appears unwilling to check Beijing’s worst instincts in this briefing by Richard Javad Heydarian from last year.

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