The cliche of the moment among pundits of Latin American politics is that the region is practically frozen as it waits to see what happens in tomorrow’s U.S. presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump.
On one hand, that is patently false. Now, as always, international diplomacy continues to be pursued across the region without regard to whatever is happening up north. Over the weekend, the United Nations COP16 Biodiversity Summit wrapped up in Colombia with an agreement to include greater Indigenous participation in future negotiations. In mid-November, Peru will host about 20 Asian and Latin American leaders at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum, or APEC, summit, where Chinese investments and trade agreements will feature prominently. Days later, the G20 will meet in Brazil, where President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will try to enlist the leaders of the world’s top economies to support his agenda focused on climate change and justice for developing economies. U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to attend both of the upcoming meetings—among his final trips before stepping down—no matter the result of the U.S. election.
Additionally, numerous domestic developments continue to unfold in countries across the region without regard for how the U.S. election will turn out. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, now one month into office, is pressing forward with a controversial judicial overhaul and energy regulations, even as violence in the states of Sinaloa and Guerrero seems to be spiking. Just last week, Bolivia saw a new controversy break out over a purported assassination attempt against former President Evo Morales and the takeover of some military barracks by his supporters, escalating the feud between Morales and his one-time political protégé, current President Luis Arce. In Venezuela, a top opposition leader was found tortured and murdered, suggesting that the targeted campaign of repression by the regime of President Nicolas Maduro will worsen as his inauguration for a new and illegitimate term in January nears.