As with the 2020 matchup between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, the 2024 presidential election pitting Trump against Vice President Kamala Harris lacks a candidate who champions free trade. Given the importance of swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, with their histories of organized labor and manufacturing, neither political party can afford to run on a platform of trade liberalization anymore. This makes it even more important to understand the differences between the two versions of protectionism on offer from Trump and Harris this year.
It wasn’t always like this. U.S. politics had long been characterized by a cleavage between the two political parties on trade. Since the administration of former President Ronald Reagan in the 1980s, the GOP generally embraced free trade, pushing for more open markets and lower tariffs. By contrast, the Democratic Party, which has historically been supported by organized labor, resisted trade liberalization. However, since the administration of former President Bill Clinton in the 1990s, Democrats gradually embraced trade liberalization, though often coupled with trade adjustment policies to support affected workers.
During the ensuing period of peak globalization, both parties supported free trade more than ever before. But it didn’t last long for two reasons: first, the political backlash against economic globalization, which surfaced after the global financial crisis; and second, China’s rapid rise as a peer economic and military competitor, which further eroded the U.S. commitment to free trade.