If there is one takeaway from the dramatic events of the past month, it is that now is a risky time to make predictions about the 2024 U.S. presidential election. The assassination attempt against former President Donald Trump, President Joe Biden’s exit and Vice President Kamala Harris’s entry into the race have scrambled the country’s political landscape beyond all recognition.
There is, however, one certainty: Regardless of the outcome, the election will mark the definitive end of an era. Recent public opinion research that New America conducted with the Chicago Council on Global Affairs paints a picture of waning support for the kind of U.S. global leadership that has defined Washington’s engagement with the world the past 80 years. While most Americans still favor a prominent U.S. role, the devil is in the details. And those details reveal a nation adjusting to an emergent multipolar order yet deeply divided along partisan, generational and racial lines when it comes to foreign policy.
The election isn’t just a choice between two candidates. It’s a referendum on America’s place in the world. And as voters ready for the polls in November, they’re not just weighing economic concerns. They’re grappling with a fundamental shift in how the U.S. sees itself on the world stage.