The past two weeks have brought major political and strategic changes to the Middle East, particularly in Israel, which saw a military confrontation with Hamas-ruled Gaza as well as a feverish pace of political activity in advance of upcoming parliamentary elections.
Developments in Israel on both the military and political front have implications for the prospects of a much-discussed war with Iran. The question is whether the changes on the ground make a war with Iran more or less likely.
The war with Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza pitted Israel against groups linked and partly armed by the Islamic Republic, and the conflict saw a showdown between Iranian-supplied missiles and Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense shield. On the political front, the selection of candidates to run in the January elections and, more importantly, the announcement by Defense Minister Ehud Barak that he will retire from politics after Jan. 22 could have a direct impact on Israel’s strategic calculus regarding Iran’s nuclear program.