China’s influence in sub-Saharan Africa is allegedly closely coordinated, and effective, if not unstoppable. The Chinese government seeks to dominate the supply of critical minerals, gain political influence, and undermine the West using state subsidies, low wages, state-party-enterprise coordination, and disregard for legalities to secure access. China gives African states money and infrastructure in exchange for resources and influence. However, as our extensive research and reporting on the case of Zambia demonstrates, China’s success in the region is not as coordinated or effective as claimed, and can be contested.*
Zambians’ views of China are not universally positive. Moreover, China’s influence in Zambia is not monolithic. Many small Chinese operators came to Zambia to gain autonomy from dominant state-owned enterprises and an overbearing party-state. In Zambia, for these small businesses, “The mountains are high and the emperor is far away,” as the ancient Chinese saying goes. These small operators also often resent their larger compatriots. These factors give the United States and other countries opportunities they can exploit. The consequence for Western inaction is Beijing’s continued dominance of Zambia. And while each country in the immediate region is unique, their commonalities mean that the lessons of Zambia can be generalized.
In short, Washington must change the way it thinks about both the mining sector and the priority of sub-Saharan Africa in U.S. foreign policy in order to secure critical resources and undermine China’s influence. The U.S. government must treat the mining of copper, cobalt, and other rare metals the way it now treats semiconductors—as a strategic industry worthy of support by Western governments. To ignore sub-Saharan Africa is to ignore the world’s most critical source of strategic resources and its fastest-growing populations. The U.S. government is starting to act on a small scale, but its efforts are still too slow and small.