Latest Archive

Reacting to violent protests opposing the $4.8 billion Conga mining project in the state of Cajamarca, Peruvian President Ollanta Humala declared a state of emergency last week before replacing more than half of his cabinet and swearing in a new prime minister over the weekend. Michael Shifter, president of the Inter-American Dialogue, told Trend Lines that these developments reflect a shift in Humala’s sympathies and strategies. The president is looking to reassure foreign investors, Shifter said, even if that means isolating leftist supporters. “It is hard to interpret this any way other than as a break from the left,” he […]

The latest front in the Arab Spring opened up in the oil-rich Gulf kingdom of Kuwait when Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmed Al Sabah issued a decree on Dec. 6 dissolving Kuwait’s parliament in response to months of protests. The decree, which requires that new elections be held within 60 days, has now become the focus of the growing political crisis in what has historically been the Gulf’s most liberal kingdom. Mark Katz, a George Mason University political scientist and an expert on Gulf politics, told Trend Lines that the situation, however chaotic, isn’t particularly surprising. “The idea of a parliamentary […]

Editor’s note: This is the first in a two-part series on India’s strategic engagement in Central Asia. Part one examines ties with Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Part two will examine ties with Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan.India’s engagement with Central Asia on strategic military concerns is gathering pace, with visits by high-ranking Indian defense officials and security cooperation deals underscoring the immense value New Delhi attaches to its growing military relationship with the region. The strengthened Indian presence in the area is driven by New Delhi’s desire not only to protect its emerging investments in Central Asia, but also its interests in Afghanistan […]

Indonesia and Malaysia recently began talks about their shared border near Indonesia’s West Kalimantan province, according to an Indonesian Foreign Ministry spokesman. In an email interview, Dave McRae, a research fellow in the East Asia Program at the Lowy Institute for International Policy, discussed Indonesia-Malaysia relations. WPR: What is the recent history of Indonesia-Malaysia relations? Dave McRae: Recent Indonesia-Malaysia relations have featured regular public and diplomatic controversies, but the relationship is nevertheless underpinned by solid economic ties and the routine business of bilateral cooperation. A broad range of issues have spurred tensions between Indonesia and Malaysia. The countries’ navies have […]

Last week’s Duma elections have identified several weaknesses in Russia’s political system that cannot easily be solved. The current political order will probably survive the protests over the blatant electoral fraud, and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin is likely to return to the presidency next year. But the Putin system that has defined Russian politics for the past decade is unlikely to last beyond the next decade, since its vulnerabilities cannot be addressed by the modest reforms that the leading members of the regime are willing to tolerate. To truly modernize, Russia must overcome Putinism, develop stronger political parties, achieve greater […]

Turkey and China signed a deal last month for the construction of an underground natural gas storage facility at Lake Tuz in Turkey. In an email interview, Selcuk Colakoglu, an associate professor at the International Strategic Research Institution (USAK) in Ankara, Turkey, discussed relations between Turkey and China. WPR: What is the nature of trade relations between Turkey and China, including the main sectors of trade and direct investment? Selcuk Colakoglu: One of the main motivations of Ankara’s rapprochement with Beijing in the late-1990s was to gain economic benefits for Turkish businessmen in China. However, the increasing trade volume with […]

When most people think of revolutions, they imagine the overthrow of political orders. By contrast, most of what we see today in globalization’s continued expansion is not violent political revolution, but rather unsettling socio-economic revolution. Yes, when existing political orders cannot process that change — and the angry populism that typically accompanies it — they can most definitely fall. This is what we have seen in the Arab Spring to date. But more often this populism leads to political paralysis in countries both democratic and authoritarian. A case in point is the recent controversy in India over Prime Minister Manmohan […]

Last Tuesday’s deadly attacks on Shiite processions in Kabul and Mazar-e Sharif in Afghanistan are further evidence of dangerous instability in neighboring Pakistan and of the Pakistani state’s failure to act coherently to counteract it. A clear understanding of the group responsible is important to understanding the crossborder ramifications of the attacks. Contrary to reports in prominent news outlets, the Pakistani Sunni sectarian terrorist group Lashkar-e Jhangvi (LeJ) was not responsible for the attacks. Rather, an LeJ splinter group known as Lashkar-e Jhangvi al-Alami (LeJ-A) — not the original LeJ organization — has claimed responsibility for them. A person claiming […]

The United Nations’ envoy to Yemen met government officials in Taiz, as protesters in Sanaa called for the resignation of President Saleh. Video News by NewsLook

Brazilian police staged a massive security operation in November to take over the Rocinha neighborhood in Rio de Janeiro as part of a broader effort to boost security prior to the World Cup in 2014 and the Olympics in 2016. In an email interview, Benjamin Penglase, an associate professor of anthropology at Loyola University Chicago, discussed Brazil’s internal security push. WPR: What has Brazil’s security policy historically been regarding Rocinha and other similar areas? Benjamin Penglase: Favela neighborhoods such as Rocinha have generally seen only sporadic policing, often only in response to high-profile criminal incidents. The state’s absence allowed drug-trafficking […]

The recent elections in Egypt and Russia have important lessons for both Washington and Beijing about the contour of politics in the 21st century — and the limits of both authoritarianism and Western-style liberalism. For the past 12 years, as part of its campaign to modernize Russia, the Kremlin has encouraged the spread of new communications technology. However, over the course of his time first as president and then as prime minister, Vladimir Putin’s concern with mass communications focused primarily on shaping television coverage. Meanwhile, the growth in Russians’ mobile phone usage, in particular, has been quite dramatic. If less […]

In the Nov. 22 Republican presidential debate, several candidates argued that the U.S. can no longer afford its foreign aid budget. In previous debates, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney went even one step further, explaining that the United States should not borrow money from China just to give it to other countries as aid. Instead, he argued, we should let the Chinese give aid directly to foreign countries if that is what they want to do. Romney is right to mention China, but he draws the wrong conclusion. China already provides large amounts of aid to countries throughout the developing […]

With the European financial crisis dominating headlines, little attention has been given to the Eueopean Union’s recently announced plan to send a team of police and security experts to North Africa to ramp up counterterrorism efforts against al-Qaida in the Islamic Maghreb. The development, announced earlier this week, comes after a spate of kidnappings of Westerners by AQIM-affiliated groups, along with mounting concerns that weapons from the conflict in Libya could end up in the organization’s hands. That the EU has decided to focus on police training rather than military assistance can best be explained by the nature of the […]

In a memorandum issued by President Barack Obama and a speech made by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the administration on Tuesday unveiled a plan to “promote and protect” the human rights of gay people around the world. In addressing the Human Rights Council in Geneva, Clinton acknowledged that the “obstacles standing in the way” of protecting gay rights “rest on deeply held personal, political, cultural and religious beliefs.” According to Mark Bromley, chair of the Council for Global Equality, that suggests that Clinton has anticipated the tensions that will surely arise with the promotion of a global gay rights […]

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin has strongly criticized US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton for encouraging and supporting Russians protesting election fraud, and warned of a wider crackdown on dissent. Video News by NewsLook

Recent moves by Russia, Norway and even China have put a spotlight on the High North, where warming temperatures have led to greater seasonal ice melt and access. With increased future activity in the Arctic inevitable, the United States must begin to address some of the potential security challenges that could result. As part of this effort, the European Command (EUCOM) — the U.S. military command responsible for the Arctic — must leverage the progress made by the Arctic Council in nonsecurity matters to facilitate expanded security cooperation efforts in the region. The Arctic Council has successfully raised awareness of […]

It is impossible to predict with certainty what the future, even in the short or medium term, holds for the countries of the Middle East. But there is no question that the future of Lebanon is closely linked to that of its neighbor, Syria. With the government of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad under growing pressure from the domestic opposition, the fragile status quo in Lebanon is also in play. If and when the Assad regime is toppled in Damascus, his fall will unleash fierce political winds in Beirut. Assad has played a key role in the emergence of Hezbollah as […]